Soybeans Continue Gains Early on Thursday

Soybean futures are experiencing gains, with front-month contracts up 6-7 ¼ cents on Wednesday and continuing to rise Thursday morning, supported by increased buying interest and a 6 ¾ cent rise in the national cash bean price. While soymeal futures also advanced, soy oil futures declined. The market is closely watching the upcoming WASDE report, which is expected to show slightly higher ending stocks at 304 mbu, and is assessing export demand, particularly the unconfirmed 12 MMT commitments from China, against a marginally reduced 2025/26 Brazilian crop estimate of 177.6 MMT.

Analysis

Soybean futures are exhibiting strong bullish momentum, with front-month contracts gaining 6 to 7 ¼ cents on Wednesday and continuing to rise 3 to 7 ½ cents on Thursday morning. This upward trend is underpinned by notable new buying interest, evidenced by a 10,684-contract increase in open interest, and a 6 ¾ cent rise in the national average Cash Bean price to $10.60. Soymeal futures also advanced $5.10 to $5.30, reinforcing positive sentiment across the complex.

Despite the broad strength in soybeans and soymeal, soy oil futures experienced a decline of 51 to 53 points, indicating a divergence in demand or supply dynamics within the complex. The market is closely monitoring export demand, which remains uncertain due to the lack of recent Export Sales reports and the unconfirmed 12 MMT in Chinese commitments from late October. This uncertainty contrasts with a marginally reduced 2025/26 Brazilian crop estimate of 177.6 MMT.

A significant near-term catalyst is the upcoming WASDE report, expected to be released this Friday, which projects U.S. ending stocks at 304 mbu, a slight increase from September's 300 mbu. This data point will provide crucial insights into domestic supply levels, potentially influencing price action depending on how it aligns with market expectations. The interplay between projected stocks and export demand will be critical for future price direction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor the upcoming WASDE report for U.S. ending stock figures, as deviations from the 304 mbu forecast could significantly impact short-term price volatility.
• Assess the confirmation status of China's 12 MMT soybean commitments and the resumption of Export Sales reports, as these are critical indicators for actual export demand and potential price support.
• Consider potential hedging strategies or position adjustments in soy oil futures given its divergent performance compared to soybeans and soymeal, reflecting distinct market drivers.