RBC: Hormuz tanker transits may have peaked in February By Investing.com

Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are driving oil prices sharply higher, with USO up 89% year-to-date and 84% over the past six months. RBC warns that even if a 60-day ceasefire extension is signed, Western shipping is unlikely to resume normal transit and flows through the Strait may remain constrained if Iran retains operational control. Goldman Sachs also lifted its 2026 Brent forecast by $10 to $90 per barrel amid a projected 14.5 million barrels per day Persian Gulf production loss.

Analysis

The market is starting to price a supply shock that is bigger than the headline ceasefire language implies. Even if missile fire pauses, the real variable is not diplomacy but whether shipping can clear the Strait without an operational toll gate; if that remains unresolved, tanker throughput can stay depressed for weeks to months, not days. That creates a persistent risk premium in crude while also widening the spread between “paper barrels” and physically deliverable barrels in Europe and Asia.

The second-order winners are not just upstream producers but companies with either advantaged logistics or domestic exposure. Saudi and UAE export optionality improves because alternative routes become strategically more valuable the longer the Strait is impaired, which should sustain elevated utilization in non-Strait infrastructure and make incremental pipeline capacity more valuable. By contrast, Western shipping and marine insurance should remain under pressure even on a ceasefire headline, since underwriters will need a sustained track record of safe passages before discounts return.

For Goldman specifically, the call looks less like an oil thesis than a macro hedge against broader inflation persistence. If crude remains elevated into Q2, the market may have to reprice rate-cut timing and downstream margin compression across chemicals, transport, airlines, and consumer discretionary, while energy equities keep outperforming on cash flow durability. The key contrarian point is that a ceasefire could be bearish for front-month oil but still bullish for the structure: if flows normalize only partially, prompt prices may ease while backwardation and freight/insurance spreads stay rich.

The main reversal catalyst is not a political announcement but a credible, multi-week demonstrated reopening with no harassment incidents. Absent that, any rally on peace headlines is vulnerable to fading quickly, because buyers will wait for verification and because sanctions/legal frictions make corporate behavior slower to normalize than spot prices.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long energy vs transports: long XLE / short JETS or IYT for the next 4-8 weeks; crude can soften on ceasefire headlines while airlines and logistics still absorb higher fuel and insurance costs.
• Buy calls on U.S. energy producers with high free-cash-flow torque vs broad market: prefer XOP or individual E&Ps for 1-3 month upside if the Strait remains constrained; use 10-15% downside stops on any confirmed safe-passage regime.
• Fade shipping normalization: short marine/containership exposure or buy puts on tanker-sensitive names only after any relief rally; the risk/reward favors patience because underwriting and legal clearance lag physical headlines by weeks.
• Use oil vol, not just direction: consider call spreads on USO or Brent-linked proxies into the next 2-6 weeks as a geopolitical convexity trade; cap upside but avoid paying full premium in case of headline whipsaws.
• If looking for a relative-value expression, long Goldman-linked commodity trading beneficiaries against rate-sensitive cyclicals: the market may keep pricing a higher-for-longer inflation tail, which supports commodities desks while hurting rate-exposed sectors.