This has been one of the most affordable U.S. cities to buy a home for the past 134 years

The article argues the Midwest has been a relative outlier in U.S. housing affordability, with home prices in some Midwestern cities staying mostly flat for over 100 years (134 years referenced). It frames this as a contrast to the rest of the country’s boom-and-bust cycles and today’s persistent housing-affordability crisis, implying continued relative stability rather than a near-term shock.

Analysis

The investable read-through is not housing; it is household cash-flow preservation. In lower-cost metros, shelter absorbs less of the paycheck, which tends to show up first in subprime credit performance and only later in retail sales. For CRMT, that is a modest positive because even a small improvement in payment burden can lower delinquency and widen approval rates over the next 1-3 quarters, but it does not automatically translate into faster top-line growth.

The second-order effect is migration and labor stickiness: cheaper living costs can help retain and attract lower- and middle-income workers, supporting a steadier used-car replacement cycle. That is a better signal for regional consumer resilience than for home-price appreciation, and it should be more visible in credit metrics than in valuation multiple expansion. The market will likely underappreciate this unless management explicitly ties origination quality to better consumer budgets.

Contrarianly, “affordable housing” can also mean limited wage inflation and weaker wealth effects, so the consumer may be healthier on payments but not on discretionary spend. For CRMT that means lower charge-off risk, not necessarily a demand inflection. The thesis only becomes actionable if we see 30+ day delinquencies and net charge-offs improve while funding costs stay stable; otherwise this is a slow-moving backdrop, not a catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate outright trade in CRMT; treat this as a watch item. Revisit only if the next 1-2 quarters show improving delinquency and charge-off trends, at which point a starter long has a favorable 2:1 risk/reward over 3-6 months.
• Relative-value idea: long CRMT / short XRT if you want to express shelter-burden relief favoring essential transportation over broad discretionary retail. Entry only on confirmation that consumer credit is stabilizing; falsify the trade if retail sales reaccelerate broadly or CRMT charge-offs worsen.
• Do not chase housing equities (XHB, ITB) on this alone; wait for confirming data in permits, mortgage rates, or migration. Absent that, the signal is too structural and too slow for a clean tactical entry.
• Set an alert on Midwest labor data and subprime delinquency releases. If unemployment rises or wages roll over, the thesis flips from consumer support to deteriorating affordability quality, which would argue against adding CRMT exposure.