Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio & S&P 500: October 2025

In October, both the diversified Ivy Portfolio and the S&P 500 continued to signal "invest" positions based on monthly moving average strategies. All five Ivy Portfolio ETFs remained above their 10- and 12-month simple moving averages, consistent with September. The S&P 500 closed October 11.0% above its 10-month SMA and 11.6% above its 12-month SMA, marking its sixth consecutive "invest" signal and the largest variance above these averages since June/November 2024, indicating sustained positive momentum according to these risk management indicators.

Analysis

The article highlights that both the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500 moving average strategies continued to signal "invest" positions at the end of October. All five Ivy Portfolio ETFs (VTI, VEU, IEF, VNQ, DBC) remained above their 10- and 12-month simple moving averages, consistent with September's readings. This indicates sustained positive momentum across diversified asset classes, including domestic and international equities, bonds, real estate, and commodities.

The S&P 500 recorded a 2.3% monthly gain in October, marking its sixth consecutive month of advances. It closed 11.0% above its 10-month SMA and 11.6% above its 12-month SMA, representing the largest variance above these averages since June 2024 and November 2024, respectively. This strong performance, according to technical indicators, suggests robust market momentum following two prior months of "cash" signals.

These moving average strategies are presented as effective risk management tools, historically reducing losses during major bear markets while participating in upside movements. While they do not perfectly time market tops or bottoms and can produce whipsaws, their current "invest" signals across both broad market indices and diversified asset classes suggest a favorable technical environment. The analysis emphasizes applying these signals to specific investments, accounting for factors like dividend reinvestment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge the consistent "invest" signals from both the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500 moving average strategies, reflecting sustained positive technical momentum across diversified asset classes.
• It may be prudent to assess current portfolio exposures to domestic and international equities, bonds, real estate, and commodities (VTI, VEU, IEF, VNQ, DBC) in light of these broad "invest" signals, ensuring alignment with individual risk profiles.
• While the outlook is technically positive, investors should maintain discipline by applying moving average strategies to specific investments rather than broad indices, and be prepared for potential short-term whipsaws inherent in such technical approaches.