FDJ UNITED Capital Markets Day

FDJ UNITED unveiled its 'Play Forward 2028' strategic plan at its Capital Markets Day, targeting average annual organic revenue growth of approximately 5% and a recurring EBITDA margin exceeding 26% by 2028. The plan, which follows the consolidation of Kindred, aims to assert the company's leadership in Europe through diversified digital and international operations. While 2025 revenue is forecast to be stable with a recurring EBITDA margin over 24% due to tax increases, FDJ UNITED reaffirms an attractive dividend policy with a payout ratio of at least 75% of adjusted net profit and enhanced non-financial commitments, including increasing social contributions and reducing at-risk player revenue.

Analysis

FDJ UNITED's 'Play Forward 2028' strategic plan outlines a clear trajectory for sustained growth and margin expansion, fundamentally driven by the recent consolidation of Kindred and a continued pivot towards digital and international markets. The group targets an average annual organic revenue growth of approximately 5% and a recurring EBITDA margin exceeding 26% by 2028, a significant uplift from the 2025 forecast. This long-term ambition is underpinned by over €120 million in planned efficiency measures and strong segment-specific goals, including expanding the online gaming and betting unit's EBITDA margin to over 30%. However, investors must balance this long-term optimism with the cautious 2025 guidance, which projects stable revenue and a margin over 24% due to headwinds from tax increases and stricter regulations. The company's capital return policy remains highly attractive, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of at least 75% of adjusted net profit and year-over-year growth. Furthermore, FDJ's unique dual ESG commitment—to reduce revenue from at-risk players and increase its social contributions to 5% of net profit by 2030—positions it as a potential leader in responsible gaming, which could enhance its appeal to institutional capital.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the 'Play Forward 2028' plan as a compelling long-term catalyst, with the integration of Kindred and the push into online gaming expected to drive significant margin expansion and value creation through 2028.
• Be prepared for near-term volatility and a period of consolidation in 2025, as the company absorbs significant tax hikes in key markets, which is expected to result in flat revenue and a temporarily compressed EBITDA margin.
• Monitor the execution of key performance indicators closely, specifically market share gains in the eight main European online markets and progress towards the €120 million efficiency target, as these are critical for achieving the guided margin uplift.
• The firm's commitment to a dividend payout of at least 75% of adjusted net profit provides a strong valuation floor and an attractive income component, while its progressive ESG stance may attract a broader investor base over time.