Sturgeon says she was deceived, betrayed and lied to over Murrell embezzlement

This is less about the direct legal outcome than about the second-order collapse in credibility around the SNP brand. Even without a formal party-level charge, the optics of internal controls failure can bleed into donor behavior, candidate recruitment, and coalition math for months; political organizations tend to see fundraising impairments before polling damage shows up. The immediate loser is any asset tied to Scottish political stability premium: the probability distribution widens around policy continuity, and that matters for domestically exposed UK small caps, public-sector contractors, and anything levered to devolved spending confidence.

The key risk is a prolonged drip of revelations rather than a single sentencing event. The legal calendar creates two near-term catalysts — the facts hearing and sentencing — but the bigger swing factor is whether the case triggers renewed scrutiny of party governance, audits, and historical decision-making. If that happens, the reputational overhang could persist into the next budget cycle and into candidate selection for the next election, increasing the odds of internal fragmentation or voter apathy even if the leadership changes hands.

Contrarian angle: the market may underweight how quickly political scandals fade when they do not directly implicate public funds or policy implementation. If the story remains personal rather than institutional, the damage can stay contained to media-cycle risk, and the trade may be too crowded on the short side of Scottish politics. However, the asymmetric setup is that any new documentary evidence of governance failure would reprice not just the SNP but adjacent Scottish institutions that rely on perceived administrative competence.

From a trading standpoint, the cleanest expression is indirect: favor UK diversified consumer/defensive exposure over Scotland-specific domestic names into the June legal milestones, and avoid adding risk to contractors dependent on devolved public spending until after sentencing. The setup is more of a volatility event than a directional macro shock, so optionality is preferable to outright beta bets.