China’s Pullback Reshapes U.S. Export Markets Heading into 2026, Strong Corn Exports Offer Bright Spot

U.S. farm exports plunged by more than half through the first eight months of 2025, with shipments to China down 54%—erasing more than $7 billion in value—as soybeans lost nearly $3 billion, cotton shipments fell about 90%, and corn and wheat sales nearly disappeared while beef and pork exports also declined as China sourced more from South America. Mid-November USDA data showed a market-moving spike—85.5 million bushels of soybeans and 72.6 million bushels of corn in one week that included the first Chinese purchases of the marketing year—coinciding with record fund long positions in soybeans and a November price peak. Looking forward, a forecast of record Brazilian and broader South American corn and soybean harvests is reshaping global supply and likely capping upside, even as U.S. corn exports are running strong (USDA estimates 3.2 billion bushels for 2025–26), tightening domestic supplies amid possible downward revisions to U.S. production and weaker feed demand tied to livestock trade issues; the next Cattle on Feed report is due Friday.

Analysis

U.S. agricultural exports have fallen precipitously through the first eight months of 2025, with total shipments down by more than half and exports to China alone falling 54%, erasing over $7 billion in value; soybeans account for nearly $3 billion of the loss, cotton shipments dropped almost 90%, and corn and wheat sales “nearly disappeared,” while beef and pork exports also declined as China shifted purchases to South America. Mid-November USDA weekly export-sales data showed a market-moving spike—85.5 million bushels of soybeans and 72.6 million bushels of corn in a single week that included the marketing-year’s first Chinese purchases—coincident with a record long position by funds in the soybean complex and a price peak around November 18. South American fundamentals are shifting the global supply picture: Brazil is projected to post record soybean exports in 2025–26 and South America is set for record corn and soybean harvests, a dynamic that will likely cap upside for grains and oilseeds. U.S. corn is a relative bright spot—USDA estimates 3.2 billion bushels of exports for 2025–26 and export sales are running well ahead of last year—but tightening U.S. supplies, potential downward revisions to final production, and uncertain feed demand (complicated by livestock trade restrictions) introduce noteworthy near-term risk; the next Cattle on Feed report is a key near-term catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess direct exposure to soybean and cotton producers or exporters given the 54% drop in Chinese purchases and steep value losses; consider trimming positions or employing hedges to protect against further demand shocks
• Consider selective, sized exposure to U.S. corn-related trades or logistics providers because USDA projects 3.2 billion bushels of corn exports and export sales are running well ahead, but size positions conservatively pending possible U.S. production revisions
• Use options or other hedges ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and ongoing South American weather updates since feed-demand revisions or crop shocks could rapidly reverse current price signals
• Monitor weekly USDA export-sales releases and Chinese buying activity closely—even modest purchases (e.g., the 85.5m-bu soybeans week) move markets—and be prepared to adjust positioning quickly if sustained Chinese re-entry or South American supply disruptions emerge