For the first time in years, I’m genuinely excited for a new MacBook Pro

The setup is less about one product cycle and more about Apple re-anchoring the premium notebook category. A thinner OLED/touch form factor would widen the gap versus Windows OEMs, many of which still struggle to combine battery life, display quality, and industrial design at scale; that should support higher mix and reduce price sensitivity at the top end. The bigger second-order effect is ecosystem lock-in: once the MacBook becomes the best handheld-input premium computer, Apple increases attachment rates across iPhone, Watch, AirPods, and iCloud, which matters more to long-term services monetization than unit volume alone.

The market may be underestimating the pricing elasticity risk. A 20%+ list price increase can work if Apple also meaningfully improves base memory/storage, but if it simply monetizes feature upgrades, the likely outcome is a near-term demand pull-forward followed by a softer replacement cycle in the 6-12 months after launch. That creates a more favorable setup for accessories, display, and advanced packaging suppliers than for pure notebook assemblers, because the value capture shifts toward component intensity rather than box volume.

The most interesting optionality is cellular connectivity and AI acceleration. If Apple adds an in-house modem and 2nm silicon at the same time, it creates a credible “always-connected AI workstation” product class, which could pressure enterprise Windows adoption in field sales, consulting, and creative workflows over a multi-year horizon. The contrarian view is that the touchscreen may be the least economically important feature and the most likely to disappoint on implementation; if the UI feel is awkward, the market will focus on price hikes while giving less credit to the redesign than the bull case assumes.