'Mortal Kombat II' Eyes $65M-80M WW Opening, 'Devil Wears Prada 2' To Rule Box Office

The weekend box office is projected to materially outperform last year’s $84M second frame, led by Mortal Kombat II at about $35M-$50M domestic, The Devil Wears Prada 2 with a low-$40M second weekend, and Michael around $30M. Paramount’s Billie Eilish concert film is expected to open to $12M-$15M globally, while The Sheep Detectives is tracking $12M+ domestically. The article is broadly upbeat on theatrical demand and counter-programming, though some expectations have been trimmed, notably for Mortal Kombat II.

Analysis

The key setup is not just a strong box office weekend, but a visible re-acceleration in premium-format utilization after a soft stretch in exhibitor attendance. That matters disproportionately for IMAX because the slate is unusually concentrated in films that either require spectacle or benefit from eventizing, which should translate into a higher mix of PLF screens, better seat pricing, and less promo discounting over the next 2-3 weeks. If this weekend clears expectations, the bigger second-order effect is that studios may pull forward more mid-budget titles into “counter-programming” windows rather than crowding tentpoles into peak summer, extending IMAX’s content cadence into Q3.

The market may be underestimating the optionality in the premium large-format ecosystem. A strong showing from the R-rated action title and the concert film would validate that adult-skewing content can still monetize PLF inventory, not just four-quadrant franchise films. That broadens IMAX’s addressable slate and reduces reliance on any single studio’s release calendar, which is important because the equity often trades as if box office is binary around a few megafranchises rather than a recurring high-margin programming business.

The main risk is a “good-but-not-great” outcome that leaves headline grosses fine while IMAX premium share disappoints due to audience fragmentation across screens and lower-than-expected PLF sell-through. That would hit sentiment quickly, but the damage would likely be short-lived unless it is followed by a weak summer rollout. On the other hand, if this weekend confirms that theatrical exclusivity still drives incremental demand versus streaming alternatives, it can support a multi-month re-rating in the exhibitor/format cohort.

Contrarian view: consensus appears to be focused on gross levels, but the more important variable for IMAX is mix, not raw attendance. Even a modest domestic overperformance can matter if the premium share rises by a few hundred basis points, because that directly lifts revenue per screen and operating leverage. Conversely, if the family/comedy title outperforms the action sequel, it would suggest audiences are still highly selective on event films, which would limit the durability of the format trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long IMAX into the next 1-2 trading sessions ahead of weekend readout; upside is asymmetric if premium-format share surprises to the high side, with downside limited unless actual gross disappoints materially.
• Add via call spreads in IMAX with 30-60 day tenor to capture a potential re-rating from a string of premium-heavy releases; use defined risk because the thesis is about mix expansion, not a one-week spike.
• If weekend premium take rates come in below expectations, fade the move with a tactical short in IMAX against a basket of stronger consumer/media names; this is a sentiment trade, not a structural short, so keep tight stops.
• Watch for follow-through in exhibitor reads over the next 2-4 weeks; if premium screen utilization stays elevated, consider extending the IMAX long as a Q3 calendar trade rather than taking profits on the initial pop.