Newmont Corporation (NEM) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is slated to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 24, with consensus estimates forecasting $1.04 EPS, a 44.4% year-over-year increase, on $4.62 billion in revenue, up 4.9%. Despite a recent 5.57% downward revision to the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, Newmont's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +4.42% combined with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) strongly indicates a high probability of an earnings beat, a prediction further supported by the company's history of surpassing EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters.

Analysis

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is projected to report significant year-over-year growth for the quarter ending June 2025, with consensus estimates forecasting a 44.4% increase in earnings per share to $1.04 on revenues of $4.62 billion, a 4.9% rise from the prior-year quarter. A key nuance for investors is the recent trend in analyst estimates; the consensus EPS target has been revised downward by 5.57% over the last 30 days, indicating a moderation of expectations. In contrast to this trend, more recent analyst revisions suggest renewed optimism, resulting in a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +4.42%. This combination of a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) presents a strong statistical case for an earnings beat, a pattern supported by Newmont's track record of surpassing EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a notable +48.81% surprise in its last report. The setup suggests a high probability that the company will outperform a recently lowered expectations bar when it reports on July 24.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the high statistical probability of an EPS beat indicated by the positive Earnings ESP and #2 Rank, traders might consider positioning for a potential positive stock reaction around the July 24th report.
• Investors should scrutinize the revenue figure and management's forward guidance, as the recent 5.57% downward revision in consensus EPS could signal underlying concerns that may mute the impact of an earnings beat.
• Beyond the headline numbers, the sustainability of any post-earnings price move will hinge on management's qualitative commentary on business conditions during the earnings call.