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Market Impact: 0.75

Oil's Big Jump; Markets' Small Reaction: A Risk Of Mispricing?

Geopolitics & WarEnergy Markets & PricesCommodities & Raw MaterialsDerivatives & VolatilityInvestor Sentiment & Positioning

The conflict in the Middle East is a new market-wide shock risk to the global economy and financial markets. Historical comparators that generated outsized percentage moves include the 1974 oil embargo, the 1986 oil collapse, the 1990 Gulf War and the COVID demand collapse. Expect elevated oil-price volatility, downside pressure on growth-sensitive assets, and potential spillovers to inflation and supply chains.

Analysis

The conflict in the Middle East is a new market-wide shock risk to the global economy and financial markets. Historical comparators that generated outsized percentage moves include the 1974 oil embargo, the 1986 oil collapse, the 1990 Gulf War and the COVID demand collapse. Expect elevated oil-price volatility, downside pressure on growth-sensitive assets, and potential spillovers to inflation and supply chains.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

mildly negative

Sentiment Score

-0.25