Leerink Partners lowers Moderna stock price target to $18 on cost cuts

Moderna (MRNA) stock declined 18.59% last week despite beating Q2 2025 earnings forecasts, reflecting broader investor concerns about its future outlook. Leerink Partners lowered its price target to $18 and maintained an Underperform rating, noting that aggressive cost-cutting primarily offsets revenue declines from delayed COVID vaccine deliveries and expressing skepticism about the CMV vaccine candidate's trial success. While UBS maintained a Buy rating, BofA Securities also cut its price target to $24 and reiterated Underperform, highlighting mixed analyst sentiment regarding Moderna's long-term growth prospects and premium pricing strategy.

Analysis

Moderna's recent financial performance presents a conflicting picture for investors, where a second-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue beat is overshadowed by significant forward-looking concerns, contributing to an 18.59% stock price decline in the past week. The company's aggressive cost-cutting, including a 43% year-over-year reduction in R&D expenses, is viewed as a necessary step to optimize its cost structure. However, these savings are primarily offsetting revenue shortfalls from delayed COVID vaccine deliveries, resulting in an unchanged year-end 2025 cash guidance of $6 billion. Analyst sentiment is sharply divided, reflecting the high degree of uncertainty. Leerink Partners and BofA Securities have both lowered their price targets to $18 and $24 respectively, maintaining Underperform ratings due to dwindling success odds for the CMV vaccine candidate and long-term growth ambiguity. In stark contrast, UBS holds a Buy rating with a $70 price target, though it acknowledges that Moderna's lowered revenue guidance for 2025 could disappoint the market. The core challenge for Moderna is demonstrating a viable growth path beyond its COVID franchise, with the upcoming mNexspike launch and its premium pricing strategy serving as a critical test.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the progress and clinical trial results of the CMV vaccine candidate, as negative developments are a key driver of analyst downgrades and present a significant risk to the pipeline's valuation.
• Given the wide dispersion in analyst price targets from $18 to $70, it is prudent to assess the commercial execution of the mNexspike launch and payer receptiveness to its pricing, as this will be a key determinant of future revenue streams.
• Despite the recent earnings beat, the lowered revenue guidance and significant stock decline suggest a cautious stance may be warranted until there is greater clarity on the company's ability to reverse its revenue decline and achieve its long-term growth targets.