Apple looking to make 'premium' priced folding iPhones starting next year, analyst says

According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is planning to release a folding iPhone as early as next year, potentially utilizing Samsung Display for up to 8 million foldable panels; however, the hinge design and other components are not yet finalized and plans are subject to change. While the iPhone remains a significant revenue driver for Apple, the company is exploring new product categories to attract customers amid peaking iPhone revenue, even as the folding phone market faces challenges including hardware issues and uncertain demand, with folding phones accounting for only a small percentage of overall smartphone sales.

Analysis

Apple is reportedly exploring the launch of a foldable iPhone, potentially as early as next year, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Samsung Display is cited as a potential supplier for up to 8 million foldable panels in the first year, though critical components like the hinge remain unfinalized, and overall plans are noted as subject to change, reflecting a cautious approach to this new product category. This strategic consideration arises as Apple's iPhone revenue, which accounted for $201 billion in fiscal 2024 and represents over half of its business, peaked in 2022, necessitating initiatives to attract new customers and encourage upgrades. While competitors such as Huawei and Samsung have been present in the foldable market since 2019, these devices continue to grapple with hardware issues like display creases and have not yet proven sustained, significant consumer demand beyond early adoption. The niche nature of this segment is highlighted by Trendforce data indicating foldables comprised only 1.5% of total smartphone sales last year, and Counterpoint research showing the market grew by a modest 3% in 2024 with a projected contraction in 2025, underscoring the challenging environment Apple might enter.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider Apple's potential foldable iPhone as a strategic move to stimulate growth and innovation within its core iPhone business, but recognize the early, unconfirmed stage of these plans and the inherent execution risks.
• Monitor disclosures regarding component finalization, official product announcements, and the expected "premium pricing" strategy, as these factors will significantly influence the device's market reception and financial contribution.
• Maintain a cautious outlook given the foldable market's current challenges, including low penetration (1.5% of sales), slow growth (3% in 2024), an anticipated contraction in 2025, and persistent hardware concerns, which may limit immediate upside for Apple.
• Evaluate the long-term potential for a foldable device to enhance Apple's ecosystem and average selling prices against the backdrop of the iPhone's substantial existing revenue ($201 billion in FY24) and the current headwinds in the foldable segment.