Time-To-Stress In Oil Inventories Still In Weeks, If Hormuz Closes Again

Despite OPEC+ signaling another production increase and Saudi Arabia approaching pre-war output levels, the impact may be limited if the Strait of Hormuz closes again. Iran’s strikes on vessels transiting via the Oman route highlight that control of Hormuz remains the key risk, raising immediate concerns for oil supply and shipping reliability. The headline risk is likely to weigh on energy markets even with higher planned crude volumes.

Analysis

Despite OPEC+ signaling another production increase and Saudi Arabia approaching pre-war output levels, the impact may be limited if the Strait of Hormuz closes again. Iran’s strikes on vessels transiting via the Oman route highlight that control of Hormuz remains the key risk, raising immediate concerns for oil supply and shipping reliability. The headline risk is likely to weigh on energy markets even with higher planned crude volumes.