Trump Drives Up Prices at World’s Biggest Condom Maker

This is a classic low-glamour inflation impulse that tends to be underestimated because the end product is small-ticket, but the underlying input stack is very exposed to energy, petrochemicals, and freight. The second-order effect is margin compression across every branded and private-label health/consumer consumable that relies on synthetic inputs and Asia-linked shipping, not just the named manufacturer. Because procurement lead times are already stretched, the pricing move is likely to land with a lag, meaning Q2–Q3 gross margin pressure can show up before demand destruction does.

The more important market implication is that aid-dependent and public-health channels will likely ration inventory first, which shifts volume toward higher-margin commercial customers and further worsens affordability in emerging markets. That creates a bifurcation: premium brands and distributors with better working capital can preserve supply and pass through costs, while smaller regional suppliers get squeezed by higher input prices plus longer cash conversion cycles. In other words, the inflationary shock is not just higher end prices; it is also a working-capital event.

The broader inflation read-through is modest in CPI weight but meaningful as a signal: persistent war-related logistics friction can keep goods inflation sticky even if oil retraces. If crude stays elevated into the next few months, expect follow-on repricing in adjacent categories like medical consumables, hygiene products, and packaging-heavy FMCG. The contrarian risk is that demand elasticity is being overestimated in the short run; for essential products, consumers and public buyers absorb price increases more readily than headline CPI models imply, so volume may hold up longer than bears expect.