2 Brilliant Stock Split Stocks to Buy on the Dip and Hold for 10 Years

Netflix and Booking Holdings are both down 25% over the past year despite recent stock splits, with Netflix doing a 10-for-1 split and Booking a 25-for-1 split. The article argues both remain attractive long-term buys because of large addressable markets, strong moats, and AI-related growth initiatives, though recent earnings/guidance and company-specific concerns have pressured shares. This is largely an opinion piece rather than a new fundamental catalyst, so near-term market impact should be limited.

Analysis

The common thread here is not “stock splits” but retail accessibility colliding with businesses that are already in the later innings of their current product cycles. For both names, the split is mostly a liquidity/psychology event; the real edge comes from whether incremental capital can still compound at above-market rates after the easy user-growth phase has passed. That puts the next 2-4 quarters on trial: if guidance stabilizes, the split can act as a sentiment amplifier; if not, it simply makes the drawdown feel more participatory.

NFLX’s second-order setup is more interesting than the headline weakness implies. The market is underestimating how ad monetization and adjacent content formats can widen ARPU without needing proportional subscriber growth, which matters because the business is increasingly moving from “add users” to “extract more value per user.” The risk is execution timing: any hiccup in content spend, pricing elasticity, or ad ramp will hit the multiple harder than prior years because the market is now paying for duration rather than pure growth.

BKNG faces a different debate: AI is less a near-term existential threat than a margin re-routing risk. If generative search captures top-of-funnel discovery, booking platforms may lose some customer acquisition leverage, but their supplier network and transaction infrastructure still create switching costs that pure answer engines cannot replicate overnight. The contrarian take is that AI could improve conversion and take-rate economics before it disintermediates them, making the first-order fear overblown over a 6-18 month horizon.

The key cross-trade is that both names have idiosyncratic issues, but neither looks structurally broken. The current setup favors patience over urgency: sentiment is washed enough for a tactical bounce, yet not so cheap that one should size aggressively without a catalyst. Expect the next major re-rating to come from guidance inflection, not from the split itself.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NFLX on a 3-6 month horizon into the next earnings reset; risk/reward improves if ad revenue and engagement trends confirm, with downside capped by a durable subscription base but upside meaningful if the market re-rates margin expansion.
• Sell put spreads in BKNG 2-4 months out to express a bullish-to-neutral view; monetize elevated fear around AI disruption while defining risk if top-of-funnel pressure becomes visible in bookings commentary.
• Pair trade: long NFLX / short WBD for 6-12 months; NFLX has cleaner pricing power and monetization optionality, while WBD remains more exposed to content economics and weaker investor confidence.
• Use a staged entry rather than full-size longs in both names; add only after earnings/guidance events to avoid paying for the split-driven sentiment pop without confirmation.
• For more aggressive positioning, buy near-dated call spreads in NFLX around the next catalyst; target a 2:1 to 3:1 payoff if guidance inflects, but keep size small because the valuation is still sensitive to any miss.