Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio & S&P 500: June 2025

At the end of June, the S&P 500 signaled an 'invest' position across its 10-month simple, 12-month simple, and 10-month exponential moving averages, marking its second consecutive month above these key technical indicators after two months of 'cash' signals. Concurrently, the Ivy Portfolio, an equally weighted ETF strategy, saw only one of its five components (Vanguard Real Estate ETF, VNQ) remain below its 10- and 12-month simple moving averages, a reduction from May's double cash position. These updates indicate a broad shift towards positive momentum signals for both the benchmark index and a diversified asset allocation strategy, underscoring the current market's technical strength based on these risk management frameworks.

Analysis

Based on end-of-June data, key market momentum indicators are signaling renewed strength, particularly for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 closed above its 10-month, 12-month, and 10-month exponential moving averages for the second consecutive month, positioning 5.75% to 7.01% above these respective technical levels. This marks a decisive shift from the 'cash' signals observed in the prior two months. This positive momentum extends to a diversified strategy, as the Ivy Portfolio improved from a 'double cash' position in May to only a single 'sell' signal in June. The sole laggard is the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), which closed below both its 10-month and 12-month simple moving averages, indicating concentrated weakness in the real estate sector. In contrast, domestic equities (VTI), international equities (VEU), bonds (IEF), and commodities (DBC) all finished the month above their moving average triggers, supporting a broader risk-on posture according to this technical framework.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The consistent 'invest' signals across multiple S&P 500 moving averages suggest that momentum-driven strategies should maintain or establish long positions in U.S. equities, as the immediate technical risk has subsided according to this framework.
• While market breadth is improving, the persistent 'sell' signal in the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) warrants caution on real estate sector allocations and suggests it remains a laggard within a diversified portfolio.
• For systematic investors following this specific strategy, the June signals confirm a 'hold' or 'buy' stance on VTI, VEU, IEF, and DBC, while reinforcing a 'sell' or 'hold cash' position for the VNQ allocation.
• Given the recent flip from 'cash' to 'invest' signals over the last two months, investors should monitor month-end closes closely for potential whipsaw risk, where a reversal back below key moving averages would signal a renewed defensive posture.