Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday

The article is dominated by earnings-driven stock moves, with Texas Instruments up more than 10% premarket on a strong Q2 guide and upgrades, while ServiceNow is down almost 14% and IBM over 7% on slowing growth concerns. Tesla beat on earnings and revenue was only a slight miss, but capex guidance rose $5 billion to $25 billion; Intel gained nearly 2% on a potential 14A foundry customer win. Honeywell fell over 5% on a messy quarter but set a June 29 aerospace spin-off date, and American Express posted revenue of $18.9 billion, up 10% year over year.

Analysis

The tape is telling us this is a bifurcation market: investors are paying up for visible, near-term monetization of AI and analog/industrial reacceleration, while punishing any hint that software or services growth is being commoditized by the same AI wave. TXN and INTC are the cleanest expression of that theme because both offer a second-order route into data-center spend without the multiple risk embedded in crowded software winners. By contrast, NOW and IBM are being marked down not just on this quarter, but on the fear that AI becomes a deflationary force on the billable-hour model, compressing growth and pricing power over the next 6-12 months.

The bigger setup is that the market is rewarding capex visibility but starting to question free-cash-flow quality. Tesla’s higher spend profile is manageable only if robotaxi/automation optionality keeps the equity narrative ahead of the cash burn; otherwise the stock becomes more sensitive to every margin and delivery miss over the next few quarters. Intel’s win with Tesla matters less for revenue near term than as a proof point that foundry credibility is improving, which could catalyze follow-on customer conversations and multiple expansion if execution holds through the next 2-3 product cycles.

On the cyclical side, TXN looks like a cleaner industrial recovery proxy than the market may be pricing, because the data-center mix can offset a slower manufacturing rebound and create a higher-quality earnings mix. Honeywell’s pullback looks more like an event risk reset than a thesis break, since the spin-off is a catalyst with a defined date; the risk is simply that investors front-run the structural value unlock and the shares stall until the separation is closer. Airlines remain a fuel-cost hostage, and the divergence between carriers suggests the market is separating balance-sheet resilience from weaker pricing power; that likely persists into the next earnings cycle unless fuel retraces quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long TXN on 1-3 week weakness, with a 3-6 month horizon: the move should attract incremental estimate raises as the data-center mix improves; risk/reward favors buying strength after the open rather than chasing the premarket gap.
• Pair long TXN / short NOW for a 1-2 month trade: TXN has tangible demand reacceleration, while NOW faces the highest risk that AI adoption cannibalizes seat growth and pricing; target relative outperformance of 8-12% if the AI-slowdown narrative persists.
• Buy INTC on a 2-4 month horizon, but only as a catalyst-driven position with tight risk: the Tesla foundry reference can re-rate the stock if it leads to more customer wins, yet execution risk remains high; prefer call spreads over common to cap downside.
• Fade IBM rallies into the next 2-6 weeks via short or put spreads: the market is likely to stay focused on revenue deceleration until management proves AI is additive rather than substitutive; use defined-risk structures given sentiment can reverse on any large-services win.
• Use HON weakness to add opportunistically, but only for a 2-3 month pre-spin trade: the near-term quarter is noise relative to the separation catalyst, and the risk/reward improves if the stock trades another 3-5% lower before June 29.