Box Office: ‘Lee Cronin’s The Mummy’ Can’t Scare Off ‘Super Mario’ Sequel, ‘Hail Mary’

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is set to gross about $30 million in its third weekend and cross $350 million domestically, while nearing $700 million in worldwide sales. Project Hail Mary remains unusually strong, falling just 23% in its fifth weekend to $18.5 million and lifting its domestic total to $283 million. New horror release The Mummy debuted in third with an estimated $12.5 million, and A24’s Mother Mary is tracking a $35,000-plus per-location average in limited release.

Analysis

IMAX is the cleanest equity expression of the current box-office mix: a family tentpole with durable legs plus a premium-format-friendly sleeper hit creates unusually efficient screen utilization and reduces dependence on a single title. The second-order effect is that premium screens can stay booked at elevated pricing longer than usual, which supports not just one weekend’s box office but the next few distribution windows for any studio willing to hold exclusivity rather than rush to PVOD.

The key incremental signal is not the opening of the horror title, but the resilience of premium attendance despite genre crowding. If that holds for another 2-3 weekends, exhibitors have more leverage in terms of rental splits and screen allocation, and IMAX’s revenue mix skews toward higher-margin specialty and large-format engagements. The risk is a sharp step-down once the next major studio release arrives; premium demand can evaporate quickly if the slate becomes too front-loaded and audiences re-segment across competing tentpoles.

Consensus is likely underestimating how much this environment helps the theatrical ecosystem’s bargaining power versus streaming. A sustained theatrical run for mid-budget and specialty titles improves the case for longer exclusivity windows, which is bullish for premium-format operators and for studios that can package eventizing around release cadence. The contrarian risk is that this is more a timing benefit than a structural rebound: one weak opening from a major title next weekend would quickly expose the market’s reliance on a narrow set of event films.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long IMAX over the next 2-4 weeks: accumulate on any pullback while premium-format utilization stays elevated; target a 10-15% upside if the next two major releases preserve theatrical momentum, with downside limited if box office normalizes rather than breaks.
• Pair trade: long IMAX / short a broad media basket or discretionary exhibitor proxy for 3-6 weeks, betting that premium screens monetize scarce tentpole supply better than the average screen network.
• Sell near-dated IMAX upside calls against a core long if implied vol spikes into the next blockbuster weekend; the setup favors realized strength but not a straight-line move.
• Watch for a reversal signal in 7-14 days: if the next marquee opener disappoints and premium screen occupancy drops, reduce exposure quickly, as the support here is release-schedule-driven rather than secular.