Why Does SpaceX Stock Keep Going Up?

Space Exploration Technologies shares have risen every day since Friday's IPO, gaining another 2% intraday as momentum continues. The latest catalyst is a $60 billion stock deal to acquire Anysphere, owner of the AI coding tool Cursor, though the article warns the stock could weaken when more locked-up shares enter circulation. Current trading remains supported by a very small float of 246 million shares versus 13.2 billion implied outstanding.

Analysis

The market is treating this as a scarcity trade, not a fundamentals trade. With only a small fraction of the implied cap actually liquid, price discovery is being driven by marginal buy pressure rather than broad-based institutional conviction; that makes the stock mechanically sensitive to any incremental catalyst, especially headline-driven M&A in adjacent AI software. The Cursor deal is less about the asset itself than about signaling that the platform can use equity as a currency to buy scarcity-value franchises, which extends the narrative and keeps momentum funds engaged.

The second-order effect is that the best immediate beneficiary may be the AI ecosystem rather than the acquirer: private AI software names with identifiable revenue and strong developer mindshare get re-rated because public-market investors infer a higher ceiling for strategic bids. That said, the same logic also raises the probability that the deal is effectively a top-of-cycle valuation marker, which can chill late-stage private funding and widen bid/ask spreads in venture portfolios over the next 1-2 quarters.

The main risk is not business execution; it is float expansion. Once additional shares become eligible or existing holders seek liquidity, the stock can de-rate quickly because there is no deep natural seller defense at current prices. Momentum can persist for days or weeks, but the setup has the profile of a reflexive squeeze that is vulnerable to a 15-30% air pocket if unlocks, secondary supply, or any integration skepticism hits at the same time.

The contrarian read is that the market is underestimating how fragile a narrative-led IPO can be when the stock’s entire price path depends on supply suppression and optionality. If the AI acquisition proves expensive relative to private-market comps, it may actually improve sentiment for the private target while impairing the parent’s near-term stock multiple, especially if investors begin to view the transaction as empire-building rather than value creation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing the IPO strength in the first 1-2 weeks; if there is a tradable setup, use a wait-for-unlock strategy and look to short into the first meaningful increase in float, targeting a 15-25% retracement with tight risk above recent highs.
• Express the view through a pair: short the scarcity/momentum leg against long a basket of profitable public AI enablers with real cash flow and less supply overhang, to isolate narrative unwind risk from sector beta.
• For venture-exposed portfolios, reduce mark-to-market exposure to late-stage private AI coding and developer-tool names over the next quarter; the acquisition price can reset expectations and create a window for secondary sales or down-round risk.
• If you must participate in upside, use call spreads rather than stock to capture another 1-3 weeks of momentum while defining downside; keep duration short because the catalyst is supply, not earnings power.