Should You Buy Newmont Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings Report?

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is poised for strong Q2 2025 earnings on July 24, with consensus estimates forecasting a 44.4% year-over-year EPS increase to $1.04 and a 4.9% revenue rise to $4.62 billion. This positive outlook is largely attributed to significantly higher realized gold prices, estimated at $2,953 per ounce, and benefits from its strategic focus on Tier 1 assets following recent divestitures, despite anticipated modestly elevated all-in sustaining costs. The company's robust financial health and strategic growth initiatives are expected to enable it to capitalize on favorable gold market conditions.

Analysis

Newmont Corporation is positioned for a strong second-quarter 2025 earnings report, primarily driven by a significant tailwind from elevated gold prices. Consensus estimates project a 44.4% year-over-year increase in earnings per share to $1.04 and a 4.9% rise in revenue to $4.62 billion, supported by an estimated 25.8% year-over-year jump in average realized gold prices to $2,953 per ounce. This favorable pricing environment, with gold up approximately 29% year-to-date, is expected to offset persistent cost pressures. The company's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are forecast to be modestly higher than the $1,651 per ounce reported in Q1, with estimates around $1,657 per ounce for Q2. Strategically, Newmont's performance is underpinned by its completed divestiture program and intensified focus on its Tier 1 asset portfolio. Despite this positive outlook, NEM's stock has underperformed its industry peers over the past year with a 27.2% gain versus the industry's 33.4%, and it currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 12.32, a slight 2.3% premium to its peer group.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the upwardly revised earnings estimates and the powerful tailwind from record gold prices, investors may consider a long position ahead of the earnings release to capitalize on the expected positive results.
• Investors must closely scrutinize the reported all-in sustaining costs (AISC), as a figure significantly above the estimated $1,657 per ounce could signal eroding margin benefits from high gold prices and negatively impact sentiment.
• Considering NEM's stock has lagged key peers over the past year, investors should evaluate its post-earnings performance and valuation relative to the sector to determine if it can close the performance gap or if capital is better allocated to outperforming competitors.