Should You Buy C3.ai Stock After Its 55% Drop in 2025? Here's What Wall Street Thinks.

C3.ai, which offers more than 130 turnkey AI applications that integrate with major cloud providers, has seen its stock fall about 55% YTD after founder and longtime CEO Thomas Siebel unexpectedly stepped down in September and sales weakened. The company reported first-half fiscal 2026 revenue of $145.4 million (down 20% YoY), a GAAP loss of $221.4 million (up 72% YoY) and an adjusted loss of $84.5 million (up 474%), and management now guides to a full-year revenue decline of as much as 26%. While new CEO Stephen Ehikian brings relevant AI and operating experience, Wall Street is cautious—only 2 of 16 analysts rate the stock a buy and the consensus $14.67 price target implies roughly 8% downside—leaving the shares looking risky until C3.ai can demonstrably restore revenue growth.

Analysis

C3.ai offers more than 130 turnkey AI applications that integrate with major cloud providers and address use cases such as Predictive Maintenance (C3.ai Reliability) and Smart Lending, but the stock has plunged roughly 55% year-to-date after founder and long-time CEO Thomas Siebel unexpectedly stepped down in September and materially weakened sales execution. Management reported $145.4 million of revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026 (down 20% year-over-year), a GAAP loss of $221.4 million (up 72% YoY) and an adjusted loss of $84.5 million (up 474% YoY), and executives conceded cost cuts could not prevent a “blowout” bottom-line deterioration. Management now guides to a full-year revenue decline of up to 26%, signaling near-term contraction, while new CEO Stephen Ehikian brings relevant AI-operating experience but will need time to rebuild direct-sales momentum that Siebel had driven. Wall Street is broadly cautious: among 16 tracked analysts only two rate the stock a buy, the consensus price target is $14.67 (implying roughly 8% downside), and analysts are unlikely to revise views until C3.ai demonstrates consistent top-line stabilization and improving margins.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating a meaningful long position until management delivers sequential revenue stabilization or growth and evidence of recovered enterprise sales execution given guidance for up to a 26% FY26 revenue decline and the sharp YoY revenue drop, Consider trimming or hedging existing exposure because the company reported widening GAAP and adjusted losses (GAAP loss $221.4M, adjusted loss $84.5M) and consensus analyst targets imply further downside, If pursuing a speculative, small position, size conservatively and tie any incremental allocation to clear operational milestones: material enterprise deal wins or renewals, visible narrowing of losses, and consistent quarter-over-quarter revenue improvement under the new CEO