SpaceX lowers IPO valuation target to $1.8 trln, Bloomberg reports

SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation of at least $1.8 trillion and could raise as much as $75 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. Bloomberg said investor roadshows could begin as soon as June 4, with pricing possibly by June 11, though the final valuation and size may still change. The filing cited by Bloomberg showed 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up from $14 billion a year earlier, but a net loss of $4.94 billion versus a $791 million profit in 2024.

Analysis

A marquee IPO of this size would do more than re-rate one private company; it would re-open the entire late-stage venture and private-credit ecosystem. The second-order winner is not just pre-IPO holders but every fund, secondary platform, and growth lender that has been marking exposure against an implied top-of-cycle comp — a successful deal creates a cleaner exit path and likely compresses the discount rate on other mega-cap private AI assets. The supply overhang is also subtle: if the deal is well received, it absorbs a meaningful amount of incremental risk appetite that would otherwise have flowed into public software and semiconductor names over the next 1-2 quarters.

The key risk is that the market is likely underestimating how much of the story is capital intensity rather than revenue growth. A business that is still spending aggressively into infrastructure and AI can print headline growth while suppressing near-term free cash flow, which makes the valuation path heavily dependent on roadshow sentiment and rate expectations. If the IPO prices below the aspirational range, that is not necessarily bearish for the company; it may actually indicate that investors are demanding a higher margin of safety on all private AI infrastructure assets, which could spill over into the secondary market and late-stage venture marks.

For public comps, the strongest read-through is a sentiment impulse, not an immediate fundamentals trade. AI-linked hardware, launch-adjacent supply chain, and private-market proxies could see a short-lived multiple expansion if demand is strong, but the more durable effect is likely on capital formation: more IPOs, more secondary selling, and tighter scrutiny on unit economics across the sector. The contrarian view is that a huge headline valuation may be the peak liquidity event, not the start of a re-rating cycle, especially if post-IPO lockup supply and ongoing capex narrative force the market to discount earnings further out.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Fade the first-day enthusiasm in private-markets proxies: short ARKK or KWEB against a basket of late-stage VC/growth names for 4-8 weeks if IPO demand is strong; the trade works if liquidity rotates out of crowded growth beta into the new issue.
• Buy SPX/SPY downside hedges into the roadshow window via 1-2 month put spreads; a failed or merely mediocre bookbuild could hit high-multiple tech sentiment faster than the index recognizes.
• If the IPO is priced inside the revised range and clears with strong oversubscription, buy a short-dated call spread on a public AI infrastructure beneficiary such as AMD or NVDA for a 2-6 week momentum pop, but take profits quickly because the move is likely narrative-driven.
• Watch secondary-market pricing in private AI names over the next 1-3 months; if discounts widen after the IPO, pair long profitable public AI platforms against short cash-burning private-market proxies via listed names with weaker free-cash-flow conversion.
• Do not chase the IPO on day one unless aftermarket float is clearly constrained; the better risk/reward is often to wait for lockup-related supply or a post-listing volatility selloff before establishing exposure.