ASML: Why I'm Not Buying Here

ASML is in the awkward zone where fundamentals are better than the stock’s ability to re-rate. The market is still paying for a monopoly-ish tool franchise, but export controls cap the addressable upside because every incremental AI capex dollar is not fully monetizable into shipments. That creates a lagged earnings-risk setup: near-term margins can keep surprising, while the equity can still de-rate if bookings fail to confirm the 2026 setup.

The real second-order effect is on the semi supply chain. If ASML’s order visibility softens, wafer-fab equipment peers with more cyclical exposure should feel it first, but chipmakers with aggressive AI roadmaps also get a hidden benefit from equipment scarcity because constrained capacity preserves pricing power for leading-node logic and HBM ecosystems. In other words, weaker ASML order momentum is not automatically bearish for AI semis; it can actually reinforce scarcity economics for the highest-end foundry and memory names.

The risk/catalyst balance is asymmetric over the next 1-2 quarters. The upside catalyst is any evidence that bookings are not just delayed but accelerating into a stronger 2026 demand slope; the downside catalyst is a single export-control escalation or a weaker-than-expected order intake print that forces the market to haircut the 2026 guide. Consensus appears to be underpricing how quickly a premium multiple can compress when a capital goods monopoly loses narrative momentum, even if earnings remain fine.

Contrarian takeaway: the stock may not be expensive because of current earnings, but because the market is already discounting a clean AI monetization path that policy can interrupt. That makes the setup more about timing than direction—fundamentals may stay strong for months while the multiple bleeds. The better trade may be relative value versus other AI infrastructure names that are less exposed to export-license volatility.