The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of June 2025

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite, differing in composition and weighting, all posted strong real gains through June 2025, with the Nasdaq leading at 6.3%. Despite a challenging start to the 21st century, all three indices have demonstrated significant real growth over the past decade, notably the S&P 500's 116% increase. Since their respective 2000 peaks, ETFs tracking these indices have delivered real compounded annual returns ranging from 4.47% to 4.93%, underscoring a substantial long-term recovery and resilience in broad U.S. equity markets.

Analysis

U.S. equity markets demonstrated robust performance through June 2025, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading gains at 6.6% month-over-month, outpacing the S&P 500's 5.0% and the Dow's 4.3%. After adjusting for inflation, the real returns remained strong across the board, with the Nasdaq posting a 6.3% real gain. This recent performance is part of a powerful trend over the last decade, which has produced significant real growth of 116% for the S&P 500 and 114% for the Nasdaq, overcoming the challenging market conditions of the early 21st century. Analysis of corresponding ETFs since their 2000 peaks reveals that an initial investment delivered real compounded annual returns of 4.93% for the Dow-tracking DIA and 4.92% for the S&P 500-tracking SPY. Notably, the Nasdaq-100 tracking QQQ, despite its strong recent performance, yielded a lower real compounded annual return of 4.47% from its March 2000 peak, highlighting the long-term valuation impact of the dot-com bubble.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the Nasdaq's recent outperformance versus the slightly higher long-term real returns from the Dow, investors should align their index ETF exposure (e.g., QQQ, SPY, DIA) with their specific growth-versus-value outlook and risk tolerance.
• The data underscores the necessity of a long-term investment horizon, as evidenced by the market's strong recovery over the past decade and positive real returns since the 2000 peak; focus should remain on inflation-adjusted figures to accurately gauge wealth creation.
• While the technology sector shows strong momentum, the superior long-term, inflation-adjusted compounded returns from the broader S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow suggest that maintaining a core allocation to these diversified indices provides a resilient strategy against the volatility of sector-specific downturns.