Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio & S&P 500: August 2025

At the end of August, all five Ivy Portfolio ETFs were above their 10-month and 12-month simple moving averages, signaling full "invest" positions, a shift from July's single cash holding. Concurrently, the S&P 500 closed August with a 1.9% gain, marking its fourth consecutive "invest" signal across 10-month SMA, 12-month SMA, and 10-month EMA strategies, closing between 7.66% and 8.46% above these respective averages. This widespread "invest" signal across both diversified portfolios and the broad market index suggests sustained positive momentum and a "risk-on" environment, aligning with trend-following risk management strategies.

Analysis

Technical indicators at the end of August reveal broad-based positive momentum across major asset classes. The Ivy Portfolio, a diversified strategy tracking five ETFs, is now fully in an 'invest' position, with all components (VTI, VEU, IEF, VNQ, DBC) closing above their 10-month and 12-month simple moving averages (SMAs). This marks an improvement from July, which held one asset in cash, and indicates a strengthening trend as no positions are currently near a reversal signal. Concurrently, the S&P 500 Index registered its fourth consecutive monthly gain (+1.9%) and its fourth straight 'invest' signal across multiple moving average strategies. The index closed significantly above these technical levels, sitting 7.66% above its 10-month SMA, 8.46% above its 12-month SMA, and 7.68% above its 10-month EMA. These variances represent the widest margins since late 2024 and early 2025, suggesting an acceleration of the current uptrend and confirming a 'risk-on' environment from a trend-following perspective.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For investors utilizing trend-following or momentum-based systems, the synchronized 'invest' signals across all five Ivy Portfolio ETFs and the S&P 500 support maintaining full exposure to these asset classes.
• While momentum is strong, the significant deviation of the S&P 500 from its moving averages (e.g., 8.46% above its 12-month SMA) warrants monitoring for signs of overextension; the primary risk indicator remains an end-of-month close below these key average levels.
• Consider applying this moving average strategy to individual holdings as a risk management overlay, particularly within tax-advantaged accounts, to systematically participate in uptrends while mitigating exposure to major bear markets.