A U.S.-backed plan for Gaza, partially accepted by Hamas and supported by Israeli PM Netanyahu, is causing a critical rift within his far-right coalition, as ultra-nationalist ministers threaten to withdraw over provisions allowing Hamas members to remain. This internal opposition risks collapsing the government and forcing early elections, thereby complicating de-escalation efforts, hindering the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and challenging broader U.S. diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East.
JERUSALEM, Oct 5 (Reuters) - A rift within Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is emerging as a flashpoint in efforts to end the war in Gaza, threatening to derail a U.S. push to reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. Under pressure from Donald Trump to end the two-year-old war, Netanyahu is facing a backlash from ultra-nationalist allies whose opposition to the U.S. president's Gaza proposal could force the Israeli leader into early elections. Sign up here. Netanyahu has embraced Trump's 20-point plan to end the war, which calls for Gaza's demilitarization and rules out any future governing role for Hamas, though it allows its members to remain if they renounce violence and surrender their weapons. FAR RIGHT WORRIED BY PROSPECT OF A 'REVIVED' HAMAS Hamas also responded positively, partially accepting Trump’s plan, saying it was ready to negotiate the hostages' release and would be part of a "Palestinian national framework" as Gaza's future is addressed. But the idea that Hamas could still exist, let alone be in a position to continue discussing the Gaza plan after hostages are released, enraged Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners. "We cannot agree under any circumstances to a scenario in which the terrorist organization that brought the greatest calamity upon the State of Israel is revived," said National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. "We will in no way be partners to that," he said in a post on X after the Sabbath, threatening to quit the government. If far-right ministers believe Netanyahu has made too many concessions to end the war, his ruling coalition -- the most right-wing government in Israel's history -- could collapse a full year before the next election, which must be held by October 2026. But insisting on more war in Gaza would antagonise the families of hostages still held by Palestinian militants in Gaza, and could further alienate a war-weary Israeli public as well as Israel's international allies. Continued conflict could also extinguish Israeli hopes that more Arab and Muslim states like Saudi Arabia or Indonesia could join the Abraham Accords, a set of U.S.-backed agreements that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. TRUMP CALLS FOR HALT TO ISRAELI BOMBARDMENT IN GAZA Expanding the Accords has been a priority for Trump as his administration pursues its own interests in the Middle East, but Riyadh has made it clear it will not normalize with Israel until the Gaza war ends and there is a path to Palestinian statehood. Trump has called for Israel to stop bombing Gaza in order for talks on his plan to play out, starting with indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt on Monday for the release of all remaining hostages. But on Saturday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that pausing attacks in Gaza was a "grave mistake". He said that over time this would erode Israel's position as it pursues its aims of freeing the hostages, eliminating Hamas and carrying out the demilitarisation of Gaza. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, whose parties hold 13 of the Knesset's 120 seats, have long pushed Netanyahu to pursue sweeping, seemingly unattainable goals in Gaza. If both were to leave the government, it would likely trigger an election. NO GAZA CEASEFIRE YET, SAYS ISRAELI GOVERNMENT Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian told reporters on Sunday that the military had stopped what she said was certain bombings but that there was no ceasefire in place. The military would continue to act for "defensive purposes", she said. Despite Trump's call to halt the bombing, Israeli strikes on Gaza over the weekend killed dozens of Palestinians. Netanyahu has framed the plan as a joint effort that advances the government's goals, which include Hamas' surrender and Israeli security control in Gaza and its perimeter. GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE NOT EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY, POLLSTER SAYS But Trump's plan lacks details, including any sort of time frame for Hamas to disarm. A vague reference to Palestinian statehood is also likely to infuriate Netanyahu's far-right allies. Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak, who worked for Netanyahu in the 1990s, said he believed that the government was nearing its end, though he did not expect an immediate collapse given that the opposition supports the Trump plan while Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have few options other than staying aligned with Netanyahu. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered to lend the government support to prevent it from collapsing in order to see through Trump's plan. Lapid on Sunday said Netanyahu could agree to an election date, offering "insurance" from what he called the prime minister's "extremist and irresponsible partners." Reporting by Alexander Cornwell in Jerusalem, additional reporting by Pesha Magid and Steven Scheer, Editing by William Maclean Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. A critical rift within Israel's far-right coalition presents a significant source of geopolitical and market uncertainty. Prime Minister Netanyahu's support for a U.S.-backed plan to end the Gaza war, which allows for disarmed Hamas members to remain, has triggered threats of withdrawal from key ultra-nationalist partners, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Their departure would likely cause the government to collapse, forcing early elections a year ahead of schedule. The situation creates a binary risk scenario: either the government falls, leading to domestic political instability, or it rejects the deal, prolonging the conflict and antagonizing international allies. This standoff directly jeopardizes broader U.S. strategic interests, particularly the expansion of the Abraham Accords, as Saudi Arabia has conditioned normalization on the war's conclusion. The high market impact score (0.7) and 'uncertain' tone are justified by conflicting signals, such as the U.S. call for a bombing halt versus Israel's stated continuation of 'defensive' military actions, and the vague nature of the peace plan itself. While opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered support to pass the deal, the government's path forward remains highly precarious.
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