Goldman Sachs Sees Apple Revenue Acceleration As iPhone 17, AI Take Center Stage

Apple is poised to unveil its iPhone 17 lineup and new Apple Watch models at its September 9 event, with Goldman Sachs reiterating a Buy rating and a $266 price target. The firm projects iPhone revenue growth of 5% in fiscal 2025 and 7% in fiscal 2026, driven by enhanced hardware, deeper AI integration including new A19 chips, and broader ecosystem expansion. These anticipated launches and software updates, particularly iOS 26, are expected to sustain significant revenue momentum and reinforce Apple's premium market position through fiscal 2026.

Analysis

Apple is strategically positioning for an accelerated growth phase, centered around its September 9 "Awe-Dropping" event. According to a research note from Goldman Sachs, which reiterated a Buy rating and a $266 price target, the unveiling of the iPhone 17 lineup is expected to be a primary catalyst. The firm projects iPhone revenue will grow 5% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, accelerating to 7% in fiscal 2026. This growth is underpinned by several key factors: a significant hardware refresh including a new, thinner "Air" model, larger base model screens, and the introduction of A19 series chips with more RAM to power advanced AI features. A crucial element of this forecast is a strategic shift in pricing to lift average selling prices (ASPs), exemplified by the anticipated elimination of the 128GB Pro model, effectively raising the entry price for the Pro line to $1,099 for 256GB. The integration of AI through the new iOS 26, featuring a redesigned interface and enhanced capabilities, is expected to drive a strong upgrade cycle among users with older devices. Goldman's confidence is further reflected in its FY25 estimates for Apple, projecting company-wide revenue of $416.24 billion and earnings per share of $7.40, indicating a belief in Apple's ability to successfully merge premium hardware with compelling AI software to reinforce its market leadership.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the detailed forecast from Goldman Sachs outlining an AI-driven upgrade cycle and accelerating revenue growth, investors should view the upcoming product launch as a significant positive catalyst supporting a bullish thesis on Apple through fiscal 2026.
• Monitor the September 9 event closely for confirmation of the iPhone 17 pricing structure and product mix, as the anticipated increase in the entry-level Pro price is a key variable supporting the projected growth in average selling prices.
• While the fundamental outlook presented is strong, investors should be mindful of the potential for short-term 'sell the news' volatility, a historical pattern often associated with Apple's September hardware announcements.