Apple's foldable smartphone expected in 2026 as China's hinge and display suppliers gear up

Global foldable smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 experienced a significant slowdown, growing by only 9% year-over-year, a stark contrast to the triple-digit growth rates observed in prior periods, according to Counterpoint Research. This deceleration suggests the foldable market may be entering a more mature phase, impacting growth expectations and investment strategies for manufacturers and the broader mobile technology sector.

Analysis

The global foldable smartphone market is showing clear signs of maturation, with shipment growth decelerating sharply to 9% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from Counterpoint Research. This single-digit increase represents a stark contraction from the triple-digit growth rates that characterized the market's nascent phase. Now in its sixth year of commercialization, the segment's slowdown suggests early-adopter demand may be approaching saturation and that broader consumer uptake faces significant hurdles. The moderately negative sentiment surrounding this data indicates that the market's growth trajectory is falling short of prior expectations, posing a challenge for manufacturers and component suppliers who have invested heavily in this form factor as a key driver for the premium smartphone category.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should moderate growth expectations for the foldable segment and re-evaluate the valuations of companies with significant exposure, as the shift from triple-digit to 9% growth signals a fundamental change in the market's lifecycle.
• Monitor upcoming quarterly sales data and device pricing strategies closely, as sustained weakness could indicate a lower-than-anticipated ceiling for the total addressable market for foldable devices.
• Consider shifting focus from pure-play growth narratives in the foldable space towards companies demonstrating sustainable profitability or market share leadership in the broader premium smartphone market.