2 Stocks That Win No Matter What Happens to SpaceX After Its IPO

SpaceX is preparing a $75 billion IPO at $135 per share, with trading expected to begin June 12. The article argues the clearest winners are the underwriters, especially Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which are expected to collect about 0.75% of proceeds, or roughly $500 million, and may also have the option to buy just over 83 million shares. Overall tone is cautious, emphasizing uncertainty around post-IPO price direction and the risks of chasing the deal.

Analysis

The cleanest tradeable effect here is not the private-company story itself but the redistribution of fees, balance-sheet optics, and syndicate leverage across the sell-side. GS and MS get the most visible near-term benefit because lead roles on marquee listings still matter for wallet share in follow-on underwriting, M&A mandates, and equity derivatives flow over the next 6-12 months. The smaller but more important second-order effect is that a successful deal boosts the perceived quality of the IPO tape, which can tighten capital-markets conditions for other late-stage private issuers and create a short-lived pipeline lift for advisory franchises.

The market is likely underestimating how limited the direct earnings impact is relative to the narrative premium. Even a large fee pool is immaterial versus the banks’ normalized earnings power, so the real alpha is in multiple expansion from franchise signaling rather than EPS revisions. That premium can fade quickly if the stock trades poorly after listing, because a weak post-IPO print would pressure the broader “private-market monetization” narrative and slow the reopening effect for venture-backed deals.

On the contrarian side, the consensus mistake is assuming underwriters are risk-free winners. The allocation/greenshoe economics help, but if post-listing volatility is extreme, the banks can inherit mark-to-market noise, client dissatisfaction, and reputational risk while the broader exposure set stays mostly unchanged. The bigger medium-term implication is for the space/AI halo trade: if the debut disappoints, speculative capital could rotate out of high-duration private tech and into profitable financials, making the banks a relative haven rather than a pure event alpha vehicle.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GS / short a basket of high-duration private tech proxies for 2-6 weeks: use the IPO as a catalyst to own the franchise winner while fading excess halo in speculative growth names. Risk/reward favors GS if the deal is well-received; stop if post-listing weakness turns into a broad risk-off tape.
• Relative-value pair: long GS vs MS into the first trading week, expecting GS to capture the larger economic and signaling benefit from lead-bank status. Hold only through the immediate event window; the spread should mean-revert once fee headlines are digested.
• Buy MS on any post-event dip rather than into strength; the bank gets second-order benefit from sentiment and trading volumes even if the direct fee contribution is modest. Best entry is after the first 1-3 sessions once implied volatility collapses.
• Avoid chasing space-sector sympathy names for now; if the IPO gaps down or trades erratically, the halo trade can unwind fast over days, not months. Use a failed debut as a tactical short setup in the most expensive “story” equities with no near-term cash flow support.
• If access exists, sell upside volatility in GS/MS around the event rather than taking directional risk alone; the fee narrative is likely to be over-owned, while the fundamental surprise is capped. Structure via call spreads or short-dated covered calls to monetize event-driven IV inflation.