Lincoln National (LNC) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Lincoln National (LNC) is slated to report results for the quarter ended June 2025 on July 31, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $1.90 (+3.3% YoY) on $4.67 billion in revenue (+3.1% YoY). Despite these growth expectations and a history of beating estimates, the consensus EPS has been revised 4.05% lower over the past month, and a negative Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.23% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 suggests it may not be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat in the upcoming report.

Analysis

Lincoln National (LNC) is approaching its upcoming earnings report with expectations of modest year-over-year growth, evidenced by consensus forecasts for a 3.3% increase in EPS to $1.90 and a 3.1% rise in revenue to $4.67 billion. However, this outlook is significantly tempered by recent negative analyst sentiment. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 4.05% over the last 30 days, signaling a notable reassessment by analysts. This cautious stance is further quantified by a negative Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.23%, which indicates that the most recent analyst estimates are trending below the broader consensus, reducing the statistical probability of an earnings beat. While Lincoln National has a strong historical record, having surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the last four consecutive quarters, the combination of a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and the negative forward-looking ESP metric makes it difficult to conclusively predict a positive surprise, creating a cautious setup for the stock ahead of its July 31 report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the recent downward EPS estimate revisions and a negative Earnings ESP of -0.23%, investors should exercise caution, as the probability of a positive earnings surprise is diminished.
• Pay close attention to management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, as forward-looking guidance will likely be a more significant driver of the stock price than the headline numbers themselves.
• While LNC has a history of beating estimates, the current negative analyst revisions may signal a potential shift, warranting a review of positions that are predicated on the continuation of this trend.