The Newest AI Stock in the Nasdaq-100 Is Up 2,700% in the Past Year. It Could Still Soar 182%, Says a Wall Street Analyst.

Sandisk is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on April 20 after a 2,700% surge over the past year, driven by AI-related demand for NAND flash storage and enterprise SSDs. The company reported January-quarter sales up 61% to $3 billion and adjusted EPS up 404% to $6.20, but Wall Street’s median target of $843 implies 8% downside from the current $921 share price. Analysts remain split, with a bullish Evercore case at $2,600 per share versus concerns that the memory-chip cycle and supply shortage will eventually reverse.

Analysis

SNDK’s move is less a “Nasdaq-100 inclusion trade” than a squeeze on a structurally under-owned bottleneck asset. Index demand can add incremental support over the next 1-4 weeks, but the larger driver is that AI capex has created a pricing environment where memory vendors can reprice capacity faster than the market can model it; that usually persists until supply response becomes visible in lead times and capex commentary, not when headlines declare scarcity.

The second-order winner is WDC, which benefits from the same NAND pricing cycle and from any sympathy rerating of the storage group. NVDA and INTC are indirect beneficiaries because every incremental AI deployment needs more local/adjacent storage, but SNDK is the cleaner pure play on the storage intensity of AI. EVR’s positive read-through is more about deal activity and supply-chain M&A optionality than fundamental operating leverage; if the cycle is mid-boom, bankers with semiconductor coverage tend to see a longer runway in fees before the turn.

The risk is that the market is paying a peak-multiple on peak-margin optics. If NAND spot/pricing commentary turns even slightly less tight over the next 2-3 quarters, the equity can de-rate violently before earnings actually roll over, because the stock is now trading on confidence in cycle duration rather than current cash flow. That makes the setup asymmetric: good near-term flow support, but a fragile medium-term narrative if capacity additions from Samsung/Micron/others start to show through.

Consensus seems to be underestimating how crowded the “AI storage shortage” trade has become and overestimating how linear the shortage will be. The stock can continue higher after index inclusion, but the easier money may already have been made; from here, upside likely requires either a much longer shortage than consensus or continued market-share gains. The more interesting trade is not outright chasing SNDK, but expressing the view that the cycle lasts longer via a basket, while protecting against the inevitable multiple compression when the cycle turns.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Trade the inclusion pop tactically: stay long SNDK into the Nasdaq-100 effective date, but use a 2-6 week horizon and trim into strength rather than holding for a full-year re-rate; upside is flow-driven, downside is cycle-driven.
• Pair trade: long SNDK / short a weaker secular grower with elevated multiple and index sensitivity (e.g., TEAM or DDOG) for 1-3 months, betting the market rewards cash-flow reacceleration over duration-heavy software multiple risk.
• Overweight WDC versus broader semis for the next 3-6 months as a cheaper proxy on the NAND upcycle; risk/reward is better if the memory cycle stays tight, but the position should be reduced on any evidence of inventory normalization.
• Buy EVR on pullbacks only if you want the M&A read-through; use it as a short-duration trade, not a core long, because the benefit is mostly sentiment and coverage activity, not direct operating leverage.
• Hedge long SNDK exposure with a medium-dated put spread 10-20% below spot to protect against a sudden de-rating once supply additions or softer pricing comments hit the tape.