Is Trump getting impeached in 2026? Here's what he said about cancelling midterms

Former President Trump warned House Republicans that losing the 2026 midterms could lead to another impeachment push, while noting he was not literally calling to cancel elections; a recent House resolution (H. Res. 939, introduced Dec. 10, 2025) proposing a third impeachment was tabled 237-140. Midterm polling and prediction markets currently show Democrats with an edge: RealClearPolling’s generic ballot average has Democrats 46.4% to Republicans 42.1%, and Polymarket assigns the highest single probability (44%) to a balance-of-power outcome with probabilities for Democratic and Republican sweeps at 35% and 19% respectively; midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026. Political uncertainty around impeachment and control of Congress is noteworthy for positioning and policy risk, but given the Republican-controlled House and Senate the article suggests a third impeachment faces significant political hurdles.

Analysis

Market Structure: Political noise around impeachment/cancelling-election rhetoric raises idiosyncratic event risk but not an immediate policy shock; winners in a sustained Democrat House outcome are defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare) and precious metals, while digital ad platforms (GOOGL, META) and broadcasters capture higher campaign ad spend. A divided Congress (the current Polymarket modal outcome) implies continued regulatory gridlock, preserving corporate profits and favoring risk assets over structural regulatory repricing. Expect rotation into large-cap growth if gridlock persists; small-caps and financials will underperform absent a clear pro-business Senate.

Risk Assessment: Tail risks include a contested election or credible impeachment vote that triggers multi-week risk-off markets, pushing 10y Treasury yields down 20–50bp and gold up 3–7% in days; probability for such tails is low (<15%) but payoff large. Immediate (days) volatility spikes driven by headlines; short-term (months) elevated realized and implied volatility into Oct–Nov 2026; long-term (post-midterms) valuation shifts depend on Senate control. Hidden dependency: campaign finance flows into digital platforms create a revenue tailwind through H2 2026 that may be underappreciated by consensus.

Trade Implications: Enter defensive ballast (GLD, TLT) and event hedges (SPY put spreads) ahead of Q3–Q4 2026; favor long GOOGL/META to capture elevated political ad CPMs, but hedge with short small-cap exposure (IWM) if polls tighten. Use options to buy downside cheap convexity: stagger 3–6 month put spreads concentrated in Oct–Nov 2026 and scale out post-election to capture collapsing IV. Catalysts that would flip positions: a sustained >5pt move in national polls or a House impeachment vote (same-day sell-off trigger).

Contrarian Angles: Consensus leans toward a Democratic House; that may underprice the market upside if Republicans hold both chambers (Polymarket Republican sweep ~19% implies asymmetric upside). If Senate remains Republican (current probabilities), tax/regulatory relief odds rise and cyclical sectors (XLF, KRE) could re-rate quickly; consider small, convex long positions to capture this low-probability, high-payoff path. Historical parallel: 2010 midterms created short-term volatility but equities recovered within 3–6 months once policy paths clarified—tradeable mean reversion window.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long in GLD (physical or GLD ETF) and 1–2% in TLT to hedge a headline-driven risk-off scenario; build from now through Sep 2026 and trim to zero by Dec 1, 2026 if the midterms produce a clean outcome.
• Take a 2% long exposure to GOOGL and 1.5% to META to capture elevated political ad spend into H2 2026; hedge with a 1.5% short position in IWM (or KRE) to reduce small-cap sensitivity. Rebalance if generic ballot moves >4 points toward Republicans.
• Buy staggered SPY Nov 2026 3–5% OTM put spreads sized at 0.75–1% of portfolio (roll/scale into Oct 2026); these serve as paid insurance for an election-contest volatility spike—close positions by Nov 10, 2026 unless realized volatility remains >30%.
• Establish a 1% tactical long in XLF (financials) to be scaled to 3% if the Senate polling tilts Republican by >3 points (trade window: monitor weekly polling through Sep 2026); exit within 10 trading days of post-midterm clarity.
• If Polymarket Republican-sweep probability rises above 30% or polls show Republicans leading House by >5 points, rotate 2–3% from defensives (XLU/XLP) into cyclicals (XLF, XLI) within 5 trading days to capture a pro-growth re-rating.