Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Weak Yen and Nvidia Rally US Futures

US equity futures rallied in Asian trade on Nov. 20 after Nvidia topped earnings and revenue estimates, easing AI valuation fears and sparking risk appetite that sent the Nikkei up 3.06% and USD/JPY to a ~10‑month high of 157.474 as a weaker yen fueled carry flows; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang framed the AI narrative as distinct from a bubble. However, FOMC minutes revealed division over a December rate cut and the CME FedWatch probability for a cut fell to 32.8%, while the Labor Department’s cancellation/delay of October and November jobs reports (November moved to Dec. 16) leaves the Fed effectively “flying blind” ahead of the Dec. 9–10 meeting and likely keeps policymakers focused on inflation risks. The market is therefore riding a short‑term earnings/tech tailwind—Nasdaq‑100 and S&P 500 futures sit above their 50‑ and 200‑day EMAs—but near‑term direction will hinge on Fed speakers and upcoming corporate results (notably Walmart and Gap), with disappointing guidance or hawkish rhetoric capable of reversing the rally.

Analysis

Nvidia reported earnings and revenue above expectations after the close on November 19, and CEO Jensen Huang’s comment that “We see something different” eased market concerns about an AI bubble, catalyzing risk appetite across Asian and US futures. US futures rallied in the Asian session with the Nasdaq 100 E-mini up ~463 points, the Dow Jones E-mini up ~292 points and the S&P 500 E-mini up ~86 points, while the Nikkei 225 jumped 3.06% and broke above 50,000.

The FOMC minutes showed division among policymakers over a December rate cut, and the CME FedWatch probability for a December cut fell from 50.1% on November 18 to 32.8% on November 19, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will remain focused on inflation. The US Labor Department’s cancellation of the October jobs report and the delay of November’s release from December 5 to December 16 leave the Fed “flying blind” ahead of the December 9–10 meeting, heightening policy uncertainty.

Market internals and flows are mixed: the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 E-mini trade above both the 50- and 200-day EMAs (bullish bias) while the Dow E-mini remains below its 50-day EMA (bearish bias), and USD/JPY hit a ~10-month high of 157.474 as a weaker yen fed carry flows into risk assets. Near-term direction therefore depends on FOMC speakers and upcoming corporate results (notably Walmart and Gap), with hawkish rhetoric or weak guidance capable of reversing the current post-Nvidia euphoria.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modestly increasing exposure to AI/semiconductor leaders in the near term to capture the momentum sparked by Nvidia’s beat, but size positions conservatively given elevated monetary policy and data risk
• Monitor FOMC speakers and the delayed jobs-data calendar (November report moved to Dec. 16 and FOMC on Dec. 9–10); be prepared to hedge or reduce risk exposure if officials signal a pause on cuts or emphasize inflation
• Manage FX and carry-risk given USD/JPY at 157.474; trim unhedged international equity risk or add selective hedges if the yen weakens further and inflows reverse
• Watch corporate earnings from Walmart and Gap for real-time demand signals in the absence of timely government data and adjust cyclical exposure quickly if guidance disappoints