Fed's Favored Inflation Meter Jumped Toward 3-Year High In May

Traders are pricing an 82.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, according to CME FedWatch. The odds rise from 29.9% next month to 64.9% in September and 71.6% in October, signaling a progressively hawkish policy outlook. This is market-wide rate expectations data that could influence Treasury yields, equities, and FX.

Analysis

Traders are pricing an 82.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, according to CME FedWatch. The odds rise from 29.9% next month to 64.9% in September and 71.6% in October, signaling a progressively hawkish policy outlook. This is market-wide rate expectations data that could influence Treasury yields, equities, and FX.