Oil falls as International Energy Agency forecasts supply glut next year after U.S.-Iran deal

Trump reportedly said the U.S. could resume attacks on Iran if it fails to honor commitments, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. The IEA warned that a lasting resolution to the conflict could unleash a surge in supply volumes and create a major oil overhang next year. The setup is bearish for crude prices if tensions ease, but near-term volatility remains high.

Analysis

Trump reportedly said the U.S. could resume attacks on Iran if it fails to honor commitments, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. The IEA warned that a lasting resolution to the conflict could unleash a surge in supply volumes and create a major oil overhang next year. The setup is bearish for crude prices if tensions ease, but near-term volatility remains high.