Notable Wednesday Option Activity: AMG, ASTS, UBER

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) logged 69,524 option contracts traded (~7.0M underlying shares), equal to ~42.7% of its one‑month average daily volume (16.3M); the most active strike was the $110 call expiring Feb 20, 2026 with 5,169 contracts (~516,900 shares). Uber (UBER) saw 96,897 option contracts (~9.7M underlying shares), about 42.4% of its one‑month average daily volume (22.9M); the most active was the $63 put expiring Mar 27, 2026 with 14,200 contracts (~1.4M shares). Concentrated activity in specific strikes suggests sizeable directional positioning or hedging that could increase near‑term volatility in both names.

Analysis

Market structure: The outsized options flow (ASTS ~69.5k contracts ≈7.0M shares = 42.7% of its 16.3M ADV; UBER ~96.9k contracts ≈9.7M shares = 42.4% of its 22.9M ADV) creates material short-term delta/gamma exposure for market-makers. Immediate beneficiaries are liquidity providers and spec buyers who can force dealer hedging flows; losers are passive liquidity takers and short-dated volatility sellers if market-makers are long risk. This concentrated flow into Feb‑20‑2026 $110 ASTS calls and Mar‑27‑2026 $63 UBER puts signals directional positioning rather than broad re‑rating.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include ASTS-specific operational/regulatory shocks (FCC/license or launch failure) and UBER gig-worker or regulatory rulings that could move fundamentals; either could swing implied vol +50–100% into expiry. Immediate (days) risk is dealer gamma-induced whipsaw; short-term (weeks–months) is IV term‑structure repricing into the noted expiries; long-term (quarters) fundamentals reassert value. Hidden dependencies: volume ≠ buy-to-open — block sell-to-open or spreads can mask true directional exposure, and dealer hedges can cascade into other small-cap or mobility stocks.

Trade implications: For ASTS, a small long-volatility allocation captures asymmetric upside from retail/spec flows while limiting downside — prefer capped structures (debit call-spread) into Feb‑2026 to avoid unlimited IV decay. For UBER, the put flow suggests either hedging by institutions or a directional short; use put-spreads or collars rather than naked short to limit tail risk; size exposure modestly given potential gamma amplification. Monitor OI changes, large block prints (>5k contracts), and IV move thresholds (sell or trim if IV rises >30%).

Contrarian angles: The consensus reading (big call = bullish, big put = bearish) may be wrong if trades are sell-to-open or volatility arbitrage; heavy OTM call volume in ASTS has historically presaged short-lived squeezes rather than sustained fundamental lifts. Don’t extrapolate single-day volume into multi-quarter theses — set objective exit triggers (±25% price move or 50% IV change) and watch for regulatory filings, insider trades, and concentrated option sellers that could reverse the trade quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• ASTS: Establish a small long-volatility position sized 0.75% of portfolio via a Feb‑20‑2026 call spread (buy $110 call, sell a higher strike to cap cost) or equivalent LEAP structure; exit/trim if ASTS rises +100% or falls -30% from entry, or if implied vol on that expiry drops >30% within 10 trading days.
• UBER: Take a 1.0–1.5% directional hedge via Mar‑27‑2026 $63 put-spread (buy $63 put, sell $50 put) or short 1% notional equity exposure if cost of put protection >2.5% premium of position; cover/roll if UBER trades >$70 for 10 consecutive sessions or put premium rallies >100%.
• Volatility monitoring trigger: If open interest in either ticker’s highlighted strike increases >50% over 3 trading days or a single block >5k contracts prints, increase defensive sizing (reduce net long exposure elsewhere by 0.5–1.0%) and re-evaluate within 48 hours for liquidity-driven squeezes.