Despite China Issues, Nvidia (NVDA) Sees Strong Demand for Blackwell Chips

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said there are no active talks to sell the new Blackwell AI chips into China after US export restrictions have blocked such sales (the H20 chip has been allowed), leaving Nvidia effectively excluded from that market for now; he said he hopes policy changes. Huang clarified he did not predict China would win the AI race but noted China’s deep talent pool and popular open-source models and warned that both China and the US must move very fast. Despite the geopolitical constraints, Nvidia reports “very strong demand” for Blackwell, has increased wafer orders with TSMC and is monitoring memory tightness while suppliers SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron scale capacity to support growth.

Analysis

Reuters reported on November 7 that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said there are no active talks to sell the company’s new Blackwell AI chips into China after the Trump administration blocked those sales on national security grounds, while the H20 chip has been permitted. Huang stated NVIDIA’s market share in China is effectively zero due to these restrictions and expressed hope that policy could change; the article cites U.S. export-control constraints as the proximate cause of the exclusion.

Huang clarified a Financial Times quote, emphasizing he did not predict China would “win” the AI race but noted that half of the world’s AI researchers are in China and that popular open-source models originate there, signaling meaningful Chinese technical strength and rapid progress. He warned both China and the U.S. must move very fast to compete, framing the issue as a geopolitical as well as technological competition.

Despite the China constraint, Reuters on November 8 quoted Huang saying NVIDIA faces “very strong demand” for Blackwell and has increased wafer demand from TSMC, while flagging potential memory shortages even as SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron scale capacity. The net signals are mixed — strong product demand and supply-chain scaling on one hand, and material geopolitical/export-control risk and possible component bottlenecks on the other — reflected in a neutral-to-cautious market-impact assessment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain exposure to NVDA to participate in strong Blackwell demand but size positions to reflect near-term geopolitical export risk and the company’s current zero market share in China
• Monitor U.S. export-policy developments and any announcements on Blackwell or H20 sales to China as catalysts that could materially expand NVDA’s addressable market
• Watch TSMC wafer allocations and memory-supply indicators from SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron for signs of production bottlenecks that could delay deliveries or pressure margins
• Consider selective exposure to TSM as an indirect play on elevated wafer demand from NVIDIA while remaining vigilant on cross-border trade and regulatory shifts