Mortgage rates keep heading up, hit highest level since December

30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 6.22% (from 6.11% a week earlier), and new single-family home sales plunged 17.6% MoM to a 587,000 annualized pace with median new-home price down 6.8% YoY to $400,500—squeezing affordability. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are lifting energy costs and 10-year Treasury yields, prompting a temporary Jones Act waiver to allow foreign tankers for U.S. coastal routes. Corporate/industry moves: Uber will invest at least $300M and buy 10,000 Rivian R2 driverless SUVs (could invest up to $1.25B and buy another 40,000 vehicles through 2031). Regulatory risk: Democratic state AGs sued to block Nexstar’s $3.5B bid for Tegna, arguing the combined company would own 265 stations and reach ~80% of U.S. households.

Analysis

Higher mortgage funding costs are already creating a choke point that will cascade through the construction supply chain over the next 3–12 months: stalled starts lift inventories of finished homes and press builders to cut prices or incentives, while reducing forward demand for appliances, windows, HVAC and land — suppliers that operate on thin margins will see working capital stress before headline builder profit warnings. Mechanically, roughly every 100 basis points of mortgage yield adds ~11–12% to monthly P&I on a $400k mortgage, which compresses qualification rates and shifts marginal buyers into the rental market, supporting multifamily fundamentals and propelling short-term cash flow for high-quality landlords.

The Jones Act waiver and short-term tanker bookings create a finite, 60-day asymmetric window of relief for coastal fuel logistics — beneficiaries like SUN will see near-term revenue relief as spot tanker costs normalize, but national pump prices will move only cents per gallon so the macro effect is transient. Uber’s commitment to Rivian/Lucid accelerates large-capex demand for those OEMs and locks Uber into a long-dated option on autonomy; if deployments slip past 2028 the market will reprice the expected margin uplift, but if regulators and tech milestones align, Uber captures structural unit-cost advantage over 2–4 years at the expense of gig-driver economics.

The Nexstar–Tegna suit raises the probability of a blocked or heavily conditioned deal to majority odds over a 6–12 month horizon, creating asymmetric downside for NXST/TGNA and optional upside for rivals/independent local broadcasters if divestiture proceeds. Litigation creates a binary outcome; hedge structures that cap carry but preserve upside are optimal while the case progresses.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long UBER (12–36 months): buy shares or 18–30 month LEAP calls to capture optionality from autonomous fleet upside. Risk: AV deployment delays/regulatory pushback could compress valuation; Reward: 30–50%+ if driver opex falls meaningfully by 2030.
• Long SUN (30–90 days): tactical long into Jones Act waiver window to capture charter margin normalization and incremental volumes. Target 10–15% upside; stop-loss at 6–8% to guard against rapid crude-driven reversals.
• Short NXST and TGNA (6–12 months): initiate outright shorts or buy 9–12 month puts (25–35% OTM) to limit carry. Thesis: litigation-driven probability of deal blockage/divestiture implies 25–40% downside; upside capped if regulators approve.
• Short LCID vs long UBER pair (12 months): short LCID equity or buy puts to express execution/cash-burn risk while staying long UBER to own the distribution/market-access optionality. Pair reduces pure EV macro beta; expect 30–50% downside on LCID on funding/manufacturing misses.