How Low Can Bitcoin Go?

Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, down more than 50% from its 2025 all-time high of $124,773, with the article warning that additional downside is possible. The piece highlights a potential flow impact from the hot, oversubscribed SpaceX IPO and rising prediction markets, which could divert aggressive traders away from crypto. It also notes Bitcoin has previously endured deeper drawdowns, including an 83% peak-to-trough decline, though the near-term tone remains cautious.

Analysis

The near-term setup is less about Bitcoin’s own fundamentals and more about where speculative marginal capital is rotating. If crowded retail and prop-like flow is pulled into a hot IPO and prediction markets, crypto can underperform even without any structural change in adoption; that argues for a flow-driven air pocket rather than a thesis-breaking event. In this tape, the important distinction is that price weakness can persist for weeks if the best-looking lottery tickets are elsewhere.

For HOOD, the mix is asymmetric: prediction-market monetization is proving it can offset crypto slippage, but that also means the stock is becoming more dependent on a handful of volatile engagement spikes. The second-order risk is that investors extrapolate “new TAM” too aggressively into the IPO window, then de-rate the name once post-listing trading normalizes. That creates a classic event-driven volatility trade rather than a clean fundamental compounding story.

Bitcoin itself is still behaving like a high-beta liquidity instrument, so drawdowns of this magnitude are more about positioning than valuation. The contrarian view is that a sharp selloff could actually improve the medium-term setup by flushing leverage and resetting basis levels, but that process usually takes multiple weeks and often overshoots fair value before stabilizing. If the IPO calendar stays hot and macro risk appetite remains selective, the path of least resistance is still lower before any durable base forms.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short BTC tactically for 2-6 weeks via futures or liquid proxy exposure into the IPO/prediction-market tape; target a move toward the low-$50k area with a tight stop on a decisive reclaim of prior support.
• Buy short-dated HOOD puts or put spreads into the next earnings/lockup-heavy catalyst window; risk/reward favors downside if the market starts discounting post-event monetization fade.
• If you want crypto exposure, wait for forced-liquidation capitulation rather than catching the knife; scale in only after volatility compresses and open interest resets, likely a multi-week process.