Stock futures little changed as S&P 500 notches fourth-straight loss, Nvidia earnings loom: Live updates

Stock futures were little changed after U.S. benchmarks extended multi-day losses amid renewed tech weakness; Dow futures rose about 36 points while S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures added under 0.1% as the S&P hit its longest slide since August and the Nasdaq fell in five of six sessions. Weakness is concentrated in AI-related names—Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft and AMD—and traders are bracing for Nvidia’s highly anticipated Q3 report after Wednesday’s close, where analysts expect a meaningful beat but the company faces a high bar amid recent profit-taking and valuation concerns. Investors will also watch retailer results from Target, Lowe’s and TJX for clues on consumer spending, with health care outperforming while tech and consumer discretionary lead sector declines.

Analysis

U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged as major benchmarks extended multi-day losses, with Dow futures up ~36 points while S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures rose less than 0.1%; the S&P recorded its fourth straight losing day and its longest slide since August, and the Nasdaq posted its fifth negative session in six. Bitcoin briefly traded below $90,000 before recovering and gold rallied off a one-week low, indicating mixed risk sentiment and a partial flight to safety. Tech leadership was the primary headwind: AI-related names including Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft and AMD led declines and the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) fell 1.6%, while health care outperformed and consumer discretionary also weakened. Nvidia’s Q3 report, due after Wednesday’s close, is the focal point — analysts broadly expect a meaningful beat and strong AI-driven sales but the company faces a high bar amid recent profit-taking and elevated valuations, creating a clear catalyst for near-term volatility. Concurrently, retailer reports from Target, Lowe’s and TJX will serve as proximate readouts on consumer spending in the absence of fresh macro data due to the government shutdown, meaning earnings flow will likely dictate short-term market direction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Trim concentrated exposure to AI-heavy positions ahead of Nvidia earnings or implement short-dated put protection or collars to limit downside risk given elevated expectations and recent profit-taking
• Defer initiating large new long positions in broad tech or index ETFs until after Nvidia’s print and the batch of retail results provide clearer signals on demand and sentiment
• Treat Target, Lowe’s and TJX earnings as a near-term barometer for consumer resilience; rotate tactically toward defensive outperformers such as health care if retail prints disappoint
• Be prepared to add selectively to high-quality tech on confirmed earnings beats or durable guidance, but scale in and prioritize diversification to mitigate concentration-driven volatility
• Use moves in bitcoin and gold as supplementary risk-on/risk-off indicators to confirm market conviction around any post-earnings directional move