Tradedoubler Year-End Report January – December 2025

Tradedoubler reported 2025 revenue of SEK 2,222M (up 5% reported; +8% FX-adjusted) and gross profit SEK 493M (+8% reported; +11% FX-adjusted), with adjusted EBITDA of SEK 112M (up 17% reported; +23% FX-adjusted). Q4 revenue was SEK 633M (+2% reported; +7% FX-adjusted) and adjusted EBITDA SEK 42M; reported EBITDA was depressed by a SEK 44M revaluation of a performance-based purchase price related to the KAHA GmbH acquisition. Cash flow from operations strengthened to SEK 122M for the year, net cash ended at SEK 94M, and full-year EPS was SEK 0.02; management highlights strong Metapic growth, AI integration and an app launch planned H1 2026 while reiterating medium-term targets (25% EBITDA margin, 10% revenue growth).

Analysis

Market structure: Tradedoubler (per release) is a direct beneficiary of the secular shift to performance-based and influencer marketing via Metapic (order value +50% y/y). Winners include creator platforms, merchants paying on performance, and technology-enabled affiliate networks; losers are legacy display/ad-agency models facing CPM pressure and clients cutting brand budgets. Gross margin steady ~22% limits immediate pricing power, so scale (Metapic app H1 2026) is the primary lever for improved unit economics.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory scrutiny of influencer disclosures in the EU/US, a reversal in ad budgets that reduces order value growth below 20% q/q, and FX volatility (quarterly FX swings altered reported EBITDA by ~SEK 2.5M). Short-term (days-weeks) risk centers on Q&A/market reaction; medium-term (1–6 months) on Metapic app execution and client churn; long-term (12–36 months) on whether adjusted EBITDA can sustainably approach management’s 25% margin target. Hidden dependencies: Metapic growth relies on creator adoption and low-cost moderation; earnout revaluation signals potential future cash outflows.

Trade implications: Tactically, favorable asymmetric risk/reward exists into H1 2026 catalysts (app launch, client wins) given net cash SEK 94M and improving adjusted EBITDA (112M FY). Direct plays: size modest long exposure to Tradedoubler ahead of app launch; hedge execution risk with options. Sector rotation: trim legacy agencies and reallocate to high-ROAS adtech/SaaS names; monitor cash and quarterly Metapic KPIs for rebalancing.

Contrarian view: The market likely underprices scalable Metapic upside — consensus may ignore cross-vertical expansion (finance/apps) and network effects from an app-driven link share increase. Conversely, consensus may be too optimistic on margin expansion if the app increases moderation/customer acquisition costs. Watch for re-rating parallels to past adtech platform IPOs where >30% topline growth triggered >2x multiples, but also for profit cannibalization scenarios if low-margin volumes dominate.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Tradedoubler (Tradedoubler AB / dataset HCKT) with a 6–12 month horizon to capture Metapic momentum and the H1 2026 app launch; set tactical stop-loss: liquidate if quarterly adjusted EBITDA < SEK 25M or net cash falls below SEK 50M.
• Buy a 6-month call spread (~1% of NAV exposure) on Tradedoubler ~10–20% OTM ahead of the Metapic app launch to cap downside while leaving asymmetric upside (target 2–3x payoff if app drives sustained order-value growth >30% q/q).
• Implement a relative-value pair: long Tradedoubler (size X) vs short WPP (WPP.L) at a 1:0.5 notional ratio for 6–12 months to express rotation from legacy agency risk to performance/adtech exposure; close if relative moves >10% adverse or Metapic KPIs miss thresholds.
• Reduce legacy display/ad-agency exposure by 2–4% and redeploy into select adtech/SaaS names (examples: The Trade Desk TTD, Criteo CRTO) by 1–2% each, prioritizing companies with >20% YoY revenue growth and gross margins >50%; re-evaluate after Q1 2026 results.
• Trigger-based monitoring: require three positive signals before adding to longs — (1) two consecutive quarters of Metapic order-value growth >30% y/y, (2) customer churn <5% quarterly, and (3) net cash remaining >SEK 70M; absent these, reduce exposure by half.