Deutsche Bank reiterates Hold rating on Nvidia stock ahead of earnings

Nvidia is widely anticipated to report robust fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a Hold rating but forecasting a revenue beat to approximately $46 billion, driven by strong Blackwell chip ramp-up. While a newly acquired license to resume China shipments presents potential upside for Q3, the full impact on previously lost revenue remains unclear. This positive outlook is echoed by TD Cowen, which recently raised its price target on NVDA, citing strong fundamentals and product transitions.

Analysis

Nvidia is approaching its fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings release with significant positive sentiment, underscored by strong analyst expectations and robust fundamental metrics. Deutsche Bank, while maintaining a Hold rating and a $155 price target, anticipates the company will surpass its revenue guidance by approximately $2 billion, projecting actual revenue around $46 billion. This represents a substantial 53% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by the accelerated ramp-up of its Blackwell chips, which accounted for roughly $24 billion in fiscal Q1 revenue. This contrasts with a more bullish view from TD Cowen, which recently increased its price target to $235 with a Buy rating, citing strong fundamentals and a smooth product transition. A key forward-looking variable is the company's recently acquired license to resume shipments to China, which presents a potential upside to Deutsche Bank's fiscal third-quarter revenue estimate of $50 billion; however, the ability to recapture the entirety of the estimated $18 billion in lost annual revenue remains a significant uncertainty. Trading near its 52-week high with a $4.29 trillion market capitalization and a P/E ratio of 56.11, the market has priced in substantial growth, supported by an 86% revenue increase over the last twelve months and strategic ecosystem expansions like the Blackwell architecture upgrade for the GeForce NOW platform.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the high expectation for a significant revenue beat, investors should be aware that the bar is set very high, and any disappointment in forward guidance for Q3 could trigger a price correction even with strong Q2 results.
• Monitor the upcoming earnings call for specific details on the China license, as any clarity on the shipment timeline and potential revenue recovery will be a primary catalyst for the stock's near-term performance.
• Consider the divergence between analyst ratings, where Deutsche Bank's Hold suggests valuation concerns while TD Cowen's Buy focuses on fundamental strength, indicating a need to assess whether the current P/E of 56.11 fully reflects future growth.
• Long-term investors should evaluate commentary on the Blackwell to Blackwell Ultra product transition and the expansion of new architectures into consumer platforms, as these are key indicators of Nvidia's sustained technological leadership.