SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs: 1 warning to not overlook

Goldman Sachs says 2026 IPOs have averaged a 19% first-day pop, but the GS Liquid IPO Index is down 1% year to date, indicating weak post-IPO performance after the initial hype. So far this year there have been 25 IPOs over $25 million, totaling $14 billion in gross proceeds, with roughly 40% from industrials and none from information technology. Goldman now expects about 100 IPOs and $160 billion of proceeds this year, down from a prior forecast of 120 IPOs, citing geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility, and a heavy software backlog.

Analysis

The setup is less about the first-day pop and more about the embedded supply overhang. In the next 3-9 months, the real tradable pressure point is the 180-day lockup window: recent IPOs tend to leak into that event, and the market has been rewarding only the rare names with clear profitability paths. That means the dispersion trade inside new issues should outperform a blanket “IPO basket” long; quality growth with near-term earnings visibility should hold up, while cash-burn stories likely underperform as early investors monetize.

There is also a second-order effect on private markets: a softer post-IPO tape raises the hurdle for late-stage VC to push for premature public listings, which can slow the exit velocity of the entire venture ecosystem. That is bearish for software-heavy backlog names and for underwriters tied to that pipeline, but supportive for buyers of secondary shares and structured private capital that can demand better terms. If the IPO window narrows, the scarcity premium shifts from “new listings” to “already public winners,” favoring proven compounders over debut story stocks.

For Goldman specifically, the read-through is mixed but slightly positive. More issuance and more capital markets activity should help fees, but a choppier aftermarket can pressure sentiment and reduce follow-on velocity, limiting the durability of the revenue bump. The bigger near-term risk is not deal count but volatility: if equity markets wobble again, the backlog can reprice lower quickly, turning 2026 from a volume recovery story into a selectivity story.

The contrarian angle is that the market may be over-penalizing IPOs as a group because it is extrapolating the weakest cohort from the last few years. If there is a genuine acceleration in revenue growth and a credible path to breakeven, those names can compress the usual post-lockup drawdown and recover faster than history suggests. That favors buying only the best-underwritten deals after the first 2-4 weeks of trading, not chasing day-one momentum.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GS on a 3-6 month horizon into higher IPO volumes, but size modestly: the positive capital markets mix should help fees, while aftermarket weakness caps upside; use weakness after risk-off days to add.
• Short a basket of newly listed, pre-profitability IPOs into the 150-180 day lockup window; best expressed with equal-weighted small-cap growth names where insider supply can overwhelm marginal demand over 4-8 weeks.
• Pair trade: long profitable recent IPOs with visible free cash flow vs. short unprofitable recent IPOs with similar revenue growth, targeting 10-15% relative outperformance over the next quarter as the market re-rates quality.
• Avoid chasing first-day IPO pops; instead, look to initiate longs 2-4 weeks post-debut only after volume normalizes and the stock proves it can absorb supply without multiple compression.
• If market volatility rises again, use liquid IPO index weakness as a tactical hedge against small-cap growth exposure; the historical underperformance versus Russell 2000 suggests IPO beta is not cheap in drawdowns.