Weekend Preview: BLACK PHONE 2 Ringing For Modest Debut

Universal's 'Black Phone 2' is forecast for a $20M-$25M opening, representing a critical test for Blumhouse's theatrical performance and franchise potential following recent underperformances. Disney's 'Tron: Ares' is expected to see a significant second-weekend drop, contributing to a pattern of high-profile misses and raising concerns about the studio's film division profitability and IP strength, despite ancillary benefits. Lionsgate's 'Good Fortune' is projected for a modest $8M-$12M debut, underscoring the evolving market for star-driven comedies.

Analysis

Universal's "Black Phone 2" is projected for a $20M-$25M opening weekend, aligning with its predecessor's $23.6M debut. This performance is critical for Blumhouse, which has seen only one major theatrical release (Five Nights at Freddy’s) exceed $12M in debut grosses among its last eight films. Despite an 85% Rotten Tomatoes score, a mid-$20M opening is solid but not spectacular compared to recent horror hits, highlighting Blumhouse's need for a new viable franchise after "M3GAN 2.0" underperformed.

Walt Disney Pictures' (DIS) "Tron: Ares" is expected to experience a significant second-weekend drop, forecasting $13M-$17M after an underperforming $33.2M opening. The film's current $63.58M global gross represents "red ink" for the studio, contributing to a pattern of high-profile misses including "Snow White" and "Elio." This continued underperformance raises concerns about the waning strength of Disney's branding and intellectual property in its film division, despite positive audience scores and ancillary benefits for theme parks.

Lionsgate's (LGF.A, LGF.B) "Good Fortune," an R-rated comedy, is forecast for a modest $8M-$12M opening, positioning it as counter-programming. While featuring a strong ensemble cast and an 84% Rotten Tomatoes score, its projected debut aligns with mid-range Rogen vehicles from the late 2000s/early 2010s. This suggests a shift in the market's appetite for star-driven, high-concept comedies, indicating that past success metrics may no longer apply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Disney's (DIS) film division for sustained underperformance, as repeated high-profile misses could further erode its IP value and impact long-term profitability.
• For Lionsgate (LGF.A, LGF.B), assess the financial contribution and market reception of mid-budget, star-driven comedies, as current projections suggest a more modest return on investment compared to historical norms.
• Consider adjusting exposure to media and entertainment companies based on their ability to generate consistent box office success in specific genres, particularly as established franchises and traditional star power show diminishing returns.