Israel, Lebanon extend ceasefire as Trump seeks 'best deal' with Iran

The immediate market read is not “peace,” but a shift from kinetic risk to coercive containment: that is still bearish for risk assets because it preserves the same choke points while removing the urgency for a clean settlement. The Strait remains the key transmission mechanism; even a partial blockage keeps tanker availability, insurance, and voyage times distorted, which can sustain a higher prompt crude bid and widen time spreads without needing a full supply shock. That tends to benefit physical oil logistics, tankers, and defense names more than upstream producers, because the market is paying for optionality and routing flexibility, not just barrel price.

The second-order loser is global manufacturing that depends on just-in-time, Asia–Europe–Middle East routing. If passage remains unreliable for weeks, the bigger damage is inventory hoarding and freight inflation, which hits chemicals, autos, and European cyclicals before energy bills show up in CPI. This also raises the odds of sanctions/export-control tightening on shipping, dual-use components, and insurance, which could pressure cross-border trade even if direct fighting cools.

The political setup is asymmetric: both sides have incentives to talk while still posturing, so the highest-probability outcome over the next 1-3 weeks is headline de-escalation with persistent maritime friction. That argues against chasing a broad “peace dividend” trade; the market is likely underpricing how long partial disruption can persist without a formal breakdown. The contrarian risk is that if Washington truly enforces sea-lane dominance and the strait reopens decisively, prompt energy premiums unwind fast, but that looks like a lower-probability catalyst given the reported continued obstruction.