Cohu stock reaches 52-week high at 47.31 USD By Investing.com

COHU is behaving less like a cyclical test-equipment name and more like a concentrated AI infrastructure proxy, but the market is already pricing a lot of that story in. The follow-on orders suggest design-in traction rather than a one-off shipment bump, which matters because test equipment names usually rerate when investors start underwriting multi-quarter visibility instead of lumpy capital spend. That said, the stock’s move has likely pulled forward 12-18 months of optimism, so incremental upside now depends on follow-through from additional datacenter wins, not just headline order value.

The second-order winner is likely the broader semiconductor test and handling ecosystem: if COHU’s Eclipse platform is gaining share in high-performance computing and AI processor test flows, it can validate a higher spending cycle for adjacent equipment vendors and consumables suppliers. The loser is any competitor still tied to auto/industrial end-markets, because AI-linked mix shifts are creating a valuation premium for exposure to leading-edge compute while legacy exposure is being discounted. The key nuance is that this is not a pure demand expansion story; it is a share-shift story, which makes execution and customer concentration the real risk variables.

The main downside catalyst is margin disappointment, especially if AI orders carry less favorable economics or if inventory normalization masks underlying gross profit quality. Over the next 1-3 quarters, any pause in order cadence could trigger a sharp de-rating because the stock has moved far faster than forward earnings power. Over 12 months, the consensus may be underestimating how much of the move is narrative-driven versus self-sustaining; if AI test demand broadens, COHU can work, but if hyperscaler capex pauses, the multiple likely compresses before revenue does.

The contrarian take is that the market may be treating COHU like a structural AI beneficiary when it is still exposed to cyclical semiconductor procurement timing. A cleaner setup may be to own the name on weakness rather than chase momentum, because the asymmetry is now skewed toward “good news already expected.” If the company can deliver another large order or two and prove margin stability, the stock can extend; if not, a 15-25% pullback would not be surprising even with fundamentals intact.