Rick Larsen makes multiple trades in Abbott Laboratories, Amphenol Corporation and others

Nasdaq closed down more than 1.5% amid a tech selloff as Trump reinstated an Iran blockade, reinforcing a risk-off backdrop. Separately, Rep. Rick Larsen (Washington’s 2nd district) conducted advisor-driven IRA rebalancing on July 8–9, 2026—selling Abbott Labs (ABT), S&P Global (SPGI), and purchasing Amphenol (APH) and McKesson (MCK)—with each trade reported in a $1,001 to $15,000 range.

Analysis

The market setup is a classic duration de-rating: a geopolitical energy shock layered onto an already weak tech tape tends to pressure the highest-multiple parts of the index first. The immediate mechanism is not earnings, but discount rates, risk premia, and positioning—systematic funds tend to cut gross when volatility rises, which can amplify downside in QQQ/XLK for several sessions even if the underlying news is partly reversible.

The cleaner relative winners are upstream energy and volatility-sensitive market infrastructure, while capital-markets and cyclically exposed data franchises are more mixed. NDAQ can benefit from higher trading intensity, but SPGI is more exposed to frozen issuance and delayed M&A, so the spread should favor exchanges over ratings/analytics if risk-off persists. Healthcare is defensive on demand, but APH is not truly defensive; MCK is the better shelter because its cash flows are tied to non-discretionary volume rather than capex or sentiment.

Contrarianly, the consensus may be overestimating the persistence of the Iran headline. If this becomes a negotiating lever rather than a durable supply interruption, crude can retrace quickly and tech can snap back on the first sign of de-escalation. The key falsifier is crude failing to hold its breakout for 1-2 weeks or a policy carve-out that restores export flow; in that case, fade energy longs and cover index shorts quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short QQQ or XLK on the first relief rally; 1-3 month horizon. Best if implied vol remains contained and breadth deteriorates. Cover if crude retraces sharply or if megacap earnings guidance reasserts demand resilience.
• Pair trade: long XLE / short QQQ for a 4-8 week geopolitical hedge. Risk/reward is favorable if the energy shock lifts inflation expectations without an immediate policy response; stop if Brent momentum stalls for two consecutive weeks.
• Relative value: long NDAQ / short SPGI for 1-3 months. Thesis is higher trading volumes versus slower issuance/M&A. Falsify if equity volumes fade and deal activity reopens faster than expected.
• Use MCK as a defensive long versus more cyclically exposed healthcare/industrial names such as APH over the next quarter. This is a lower-volatility hedge, not a high-conviction alpha trade; exit if risk appetite normalizes and defensives lag breadth.