Stock Market Today: Indexes Jump as Trump Extends Ceasefire; Nasdaq Hits Latest High; Oil Rises as Iran Claims It Seized 2 Ships in Strait of Hormuz

The market is pricing a classic “lower tail, higher beta” setup: de-escalation in the headline risk is feeding a reflexive bid into long-duration growth, while the oil spike keeps a bid under inflation hedges and the energy complex. The second-order effect is that this is more supportive for Nasdaq mega-cap balance sheets than for the broad index because lower perceived geopolitical risk compresses the equity risk premium, while the earnings duration of AI/software names remains intact even if multiples are only modestly expanded.

The more interesting trade is not simply long tech, but long beneficiaries of capex and infrastructure attached to AI. BlackRock’s framing implies the AI trade is broadening from semis into power, networking, and datacenter buildout; that favors names with visible order books and pricing power more than pure multiple expansion plays. If oil stays elevated for even a few weeks, the market will start discriminating between firms that can pass through costs and those with airline/consumer exposure, so the index-level rally can coexist with narrower sector dispersion.

The real fragility is in the conflict-dependent inputs: any renewed disruption in Hormuz would hit emerging Asia, high-beta cyclicals, and rate-sensitive transport margins almost immediately, but the market is still treating the current move as temporary and contained. That creates a short window where positioning can overshoot on the upside in crypto, AI, and defense-adjacent industrials; if diplomacy advances, those trades keep working. If not, the first thing to reverse is the “soft landing” narrative, not the AI narrative itself.