Polestar CEO talks up used-car market as higher fuel prices spur shift to cheaper EVs

Used vehicle sales jumped 47% and overall Polestar sales rose 7% to 13,126 cars in the quarter. CEO Michael Lohscheller said higher gasoline and diesel prices linked to the war in Iran are driving price-sensitive buyers toward less-expensive (used) EVs; the company still expects low-double-digit volume growth this year and will publish an outlook with its fourth-quarter results before end-April. Polestar is pivoting to Europe to boost margins and sees opportunity in southern Europe, while U.S. sales lagged at 735 cars (5.6% of total) down from 11.1% a year ago.

Analysis

A geopolitical fuel shock acts like a demand-side subsidy for lower-TCO mobility: when pump pain rises, price-sensitive buyers compress time-to-payback for EVs and shift to the cheapest route to EV exposure — used units. That behavior shows up fastest in regions with low prior EV penetration and constrained new-vehicle affordability; expect measurable share gains for used-EV channels within 3–12 months as discretionary buyers re-route purchase plans.

Second-order winners are not necessarily OEMs but balance-sheet-rich remarketers, captive-finance operations and firms that monetize residuals and battery second-life. Over a 12–24 month window, rising volumes of returned / off-lease EVs will accelerate growth in stationary storage feedstock and recycling demand (benefitting recyclers and stationary-storage integrators), while simultaneously pressuring new-EV ASPs and OEM margins if manufacturers respond with aggressive pricing to maintain factory throughput.

Key catalysts that will flip this dynamic are binary and short-dated: a diplomatic resolution that restores smooth Strait of Hormuz flows or meaningful strategic petroleum releases could compress gasoline/diesel volatility within days–weeks, reversing buyer urgency. Medium-term reversals (6–24 months) include sudden macro tightening that throttles used-car credit, or policy shifts that re-price new EVs (tax incentives, scrappage programs), each able to reroute demand back to new inventory or freeze purchases altogether.

In aggregate, investors should favor players that capture remarketing economics, control financing wings, or sit on battery recycling optionality; avoid players levered to new-vehicle ASPs in weak geographies. The actionable window to harvest this second-order trade is immediate to 12 months for remarketers and 12–36 months for infrastructure/recycling exposure as stock-levels and B2B contracts reprice.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long KMX (CarMax) — 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: durable balance sheet and scale in used remarketing should capture margin tailwinds from rising used-EV volumes. Risk/Reward: target +25–35% upside vs downside ~15–20% if credit tightens; use 6–8% position, trim into strength.
• Long AN (AutoNation) — 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: dealer networks with integrated F&I benefit disproportionately from used-EV turnover and higher ancillary yields. Risk/Reward: asymmetric payoff ~2:1 (30% upside / 15% downside); size as core tactical exposure.
• Long CHPT (ChargePoint) — 12–24 month horizon. Rationale: southern European EV adoption uplift increases charging demand; early rollouts and enterprise contracts re-rate revenue visibility. Risk/Reward: high volatility but optionality upside ~40% vs downside ~35% if capex stalls; employ LEAP options or staged buys.
• Pair trade — Long KMX (weight 1.0) / Short TSLA (weight 0.6) over 3–9 months. Rationale: capture rotation from new-vehicle-exposed OEM earnings risk into remarketers that monetize used volumes and financing. Risk/Reward: target net +20% on pair with tail risk if OEM pricing power holds; cap position size to limit idiosyncratic Tesla gamma.